* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * FLOSSIE EP092007 08/11/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 75 78 79 80 80 79 75 73 68 63 57 51 48 V (KT) LAND 75 78 79 80 80 79 75 73 68 63 57 51 48 V (KT) LGE mod 75 78 79 79 78 75 72 69 65 61 56 50 45 SHEAR (KTS) 10 6 4 5 6 3 1 5 13 23 24 30 32 SHEAR DIR 124 117 100 100 87 216 238 171 177 212 231 244 252 SST (C) 27.3 27.2 26.9 26.6 26.4 26.3 26.2 26.0 25.9 25.8 26.0 26.5 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 133 130 128 127 126 124 123 122 124 129 133 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 -53.5 -54.0 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -54.3 -54.7 -55.3 -55.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 700-500 MB RH 62 59 60 56 58 51 51 51 46 43 44 46 47 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 7 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 25 27 28 28 24 25 14 -2 -5 -12 -28 -41 -41 200 MB DIV 21 24 26 20 23 6 12 13 -2 -28 7 3 22 LAND (KM) 1975 1858 1741 1617 1494 1251 1004 783 589 370 204 291 405 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 12.8 12.9 13.2 13.4 13.9 14.4 14.8 15.3 16.1 17.1 17.8 18.3 LONG(DEG W) 137.7 138.9 140.0 141.2 142.3 144.6 147.0 149.3 151.4 153.7 156.0 158.3 160.4 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 11 12 11 11 12 12 11 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -3. -6. -10. -13. -15. -17. -18. -19. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 6. 8. 8. 6. 3. 0. -3. PERSISTENCE 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 3. 0. -4. -10. -16. -22. -25. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 0. -2. -7. -12. -18. -24. -27. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP092007 FLOSSIE 08/11/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.6 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.4 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 Scaled RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 19% is 1.4 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 16% is 1.2 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092007 FLOSSIE 08/11/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY