* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * FLOSSIE EP092007 08/11/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 99 100 100 98 92 86 78 70 62 55 48 42 V (KT) LAND 95 99 100 100 98 92 86 78 70 62 55 48 42 V (KT) LGE mod 95 99 100 97 93 86 80 75 69 62 55 49 43 SHEAR (KTS) 9 6 7 9 5 3 5 9 22 21 25 34 37 SHEAR DIR 104 111 116 97 99 257 225 184 201 232 230 230 237 SST (C) 27.3 27.0 26.8 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.1 25.9 25.9 25.9 26.0 26.4 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 137 134 132 129 128 127 125 123 123 122 123 127 132 200 MB T (C) -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 -53.5 -53.5 -54.0 -54.1 -54.5 -54.3 -54.6 -54.6 -55.1 -55.3 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 6 5 6 6 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 60 58 54 57 52 47 48 48 43 41 42 43 42 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 10 11 10 10 9 8 8 7 6 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR 26 29 33 34 37 30 26 8 4 -11 -28 -30 -39 200 MB DIV 24 24 28 33 23 0 20 7 -7 -6 -16 15 9 LAND (KM) 1872 1758 1645 1514 1385 1160 911 691 492 301 192 252 343 LAT (DEG N) 12.6 12.8 12.9 13.2 13.5 13.9 14.5 15.0 15.6 16.4 17.3 18.0 18.6 LONG(DEG W) 138.8 139.9 141.0 142.2 143.4 145.6 148.0 150.3 152.5 154.5 156.3 158.0 159.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 12 11 11 12 11 11 10 9 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -16. -21. -26. -30. -33. -35. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 4. 6. 4. 2. 0. -4. -8. PERSISTENCE 5. 8. 9. 9. 7. 5. 3. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 6. 6. 5. 0. -6. -14. -23. -31. -37. -45. -51. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 5. 5. 3. -3. -9. -17. -25. -33. -40. -47. -53. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP092007 FLOSSIE 08/11/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 20.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.6 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.4 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 37.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Scaled RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 16% is 1.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.3 Prob of RI= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092007 FLOSSIE 08/11/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY