* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * FLOSSIE EP092007 08/11/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 123 125 123 118 106 94 82 68 61 53 45 38 V (KT) LAND 115 123 125 123 118 106 94 82 68 61 53 45 38 V (KT) LGE mod 115 122 120 113 106 95 85 77 69 61 55 49 43 SHEAR (KTS) 10 9 12 8 6 3 7 14 21 19 25 32 37 SHEAR DIR 116 119 111 132 125 152 175 177 215 217 225 227 231 SST (C) 27.1 26.8 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.1 25.9 25.9 25.9 26.1 26.4 26.8 POT. INT. (KT) 135 132 130 129 128 127 125 123 122 122 124 127 131 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.0 -53.5 -53.4 -53.7 -53.9 -54.2 -54.4 -54.6 -54.4 -55.0 -55.7 -55.9 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 700-500 MB RH 56 53 56 54 52 49 52 47 46 45 43 43 44 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 7 7 6 5 3 850 MB ENV VOR 32 33 34 35 32 27 15 9 0 -18 -30 -41 -32 200 MB DIV 34 30 41 33 26 16 25 -4 -6 -2 4 22 -3 LAND (KM) 1780 1662 1544 1430 1317 1074 822 611 437 276 191 247 319 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 12.9 13.0 13.2 13.4 14.0 14.6 15.2 15.7 16.5 17.4 18.1 18.7 LONG(DEG W) 139.7 140.9 142.0 143.1 144.2 146.5 149.0 151.2 153.2 154.9 156.5 158.0 159.5 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 12 12 11 10 9 9 8 7 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 553 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 9.2 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -9. -13. -21. -28. -35. -41. -46. -49. -52. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -4. -4. -1. 0. 1. 0. -1. -4. -7. -11. PERSISTENCE 11. 17. 18. 17. 11. 5. -1. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 8. 9. 8. 3. -9. -21. -33. -47. -53. -61. -69. -76. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 8. 10. 8. 3. -9. -21. -33. -47. -54. -62. -70. -77. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP092007 FLOSSIE 08/11/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 40.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 16.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 96.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.2 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.4 Scaled RI index= 3.9 Prob of RI= 25% is 1.9 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 26% is 2.0 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092007 FLOSSIE 08/11/07 12 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 7 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY