* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * INVEST AL902007 08/11/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 29 32 40 43 47 49 50 54 55 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 29 32 40 43 47 49 50 54 55 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 26 25 24 24 26 28 32 36 41 46 SHEAR (KTS) 31 31 25 25 21 15 14 14 13 16 14 11 17 SHEAR DIR 72 76 81 76 89 92 58 50 53 29 36 34 36 SST (C) 26.9 27.0 27.3 27.6 27.8 27.6 26.7 26.4 26.5 26.8 27.2 28.1 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 125 126 130 134 137 134 124 121 123 126 130 141 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 127 129 134 139 141 138 127 124 127 130 133 144 146 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.3 -52.5 -51.9 -51.0 -51.9 -51.7 -52.6 -51.8 -52.6 -51.7 -52.9 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 5 5 6 6 5 6 6 6 7 8 9 700-500 MB RH 70 72 69 66 63 66 68 66 65 63 62 67 68 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 16 17 18 19 23 22 23 21 21 23 24 850 MB ENV VOR 35 37 38 38 40 55 81 72 79 104 110 110 109 200 MB DIV 3 16 13 19 28 11 82 65 28 13 48 17 61 LAND (KM) 416 567 726 907 1073 1397 1777 1824 1524 1231 1038 746 459 LAT (DEG N) 10.7 11.0 11.2 11.5 11.7 12.4 13.2 13.9 14.5 14.6 14.6 13.9 13.5 LONG(DEG W) 20.3 21.9 23.4 25.2 26.9 30.2 33.9 37.9 42.3 46.9 51.1 54.9 57.8 STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 16 17 17 17 19 21 22 21 19 17 14 HEAT CONTENT 5 4 5 10 9 12 5 3 8 13 31 58 69 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 10. 16. 20. 25. 28. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -10. -12. -13. -14. -13. -13. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 4. 4. 3. 3. 4. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 15. 18. 23. 24. 25. 29. 30. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 1. 2. 4. 7. 15. 18. 23. 24. 25. 29. 30. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL902007 INVEST 08/11/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.0 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Scaled RI index= 999.0 Prob of RI= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 999.0 Prob of RI= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902007 INVEST 08/11/07 18 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING