* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * FLOSSIE EP092007 08/11/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 115 112 107 102 91 81 72 61 56 48 44 38 V (KT) LAND 115 115 112 107 102 91 81 72 61 56 48 44 38 V (KT) LGE mod 115 114 110 103 97 87 78 70 63 56 50 45 40 SHEAR (KTS) 9 10 9 7 6 7 11 16 19 21 26 31 38 SHEAR DIR 113 111 134 159 187 176 159 184 211 209 221 236 239 SST (C) 26.8 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.4 26.3 26.1 25.9 25.8 25.9 26.2 26.7 27.0 POT. INT. (KT) 132 130 129 128 128 127 125 123 122 122 125 130 134 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.5 -53.6 -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 -54.4 -54.4 -54.9 -54.7 -55.5 -55.6 -55.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 6 7 6 6 6 5 6 7 6 7 6 700-500 MB RH 54 54 56 52 50 52 52 49 47 45 40 42 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 7 7 5 5 4 850 MB ENV VOR 26 23 24 24 18 11 1 -5 -14 -17 -23 -25 -16 200 MB DIV 33 40 38 24 10 13 -4 -11 -8 -7 18 -7 -1 LAND (KM) 1683 1579 1477 1363 1250 1047 829 611 397 234 233 331 338 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.1 13.2 13.4 13.6 14.0 14.5 15.2 16.0 16.8 17.4 18.2 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 140.6 141.6 142.6 143.7 144.8 146.8 149.0 151.2 153.4 155.4 157.2 158.9 160.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 11 10 10 11 11 11 10 9 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 558 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.3 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -10. -14. -22. -29. -36. -42. -47. -50. -52. -54. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -6. -9. -13. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 7. 6. 4. 1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -2. -1. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. -2. -5. -10. -20. -29. -39. -50. -56. -64. -69. -74. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. -3. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. -3. -8. -13. -24. -34. -43. -54. -59. -67. -71. -77. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP092007 FLOSSIE 08/11/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 15.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 14.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.2 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.3 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2 Scaled RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 16% is 1.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092007 FLOSSIE 08/11/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY