* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * INVEST AL902007 08/12/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 25 26 28 32 37 40 45 48 51 56 54 V (KT) LAND 25 25 25 26 28 32 37 40 45 48 51 56 54 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 23 22 23 24 26 29 32 37 40 SHEAR (KTS) 29 26 22 18 13 13 11 15 13 13 9 24 17 SHEAR DIR 83 85 89 109 103 82 69 44 64 47 59 29 25 SST (C) 27.2 27.4 27.7 27.8 27.4 26.4 26.1 26.4 26.8 27.1 28.0 28.4 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 129 132 136 137 133 122 119 122 126 129 139 144 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 137 142 144 138 125 122 125 129 132 143 145 147 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.5 -51.9 -51.4 -51.7 -52.1 -52.0 -52.5 -52.1 -52.4 -52.3 -52.4 -52.4 TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 7 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 71 68 68 63 63 61 60 59 60 62 62 65 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 16 17 17 19 19 20 20 22 22 22 26 22 850 MB ENV VOR 32 32 38 40 44 68 83 81 88 97 96 95 87 200 MB DIV 7 19 43 46 18 14 27 5 22 16 60 28 0 LAND (KM) 437 626 794 992 1197 1650 1911 1566 1276 1037 814 468 277 LAT (DEG N) 11.8 12.2 12.6 13.0 13.3 13.9 14.3 14.5 14.5 14.3 13.9 13.4 13.1 LONG(DEG W) 20.8 22.7 24.5 26.5 28.5 32.8 37.2 41.7 46.0 50.3 54.2 57.6 60.0 STM SPEED (KT) 16 19 19 20 21 21 22 21 21 20 18 14 12 HEAT CONTENT 8 7 10 8 9 2 1 6 12 26 51 68 71 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 16. 20. 25. 28. 31. 33. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -12. -12. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 4. 6. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 23. 26. 31. 29. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 0. 1. 3. 7. 12. 16. 20. 23. 26. 31. 29. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL902007 INVEST 08/12/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 26.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.4 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Scaled RI index= 999.0 Prob of RI= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 999.0 Prob of RI= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902007 INVEST 08/12/07 00 UTC ## ## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING