* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* FLOSSIE EP092007 08/12/07 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 120 116 111 104 97 84 72 61 51 42 34 29 26
V (KT) LAND 120 116 111 104 97 84 72 61 51 42 34 29 26
V (KT) LGE mod 120 116 109 102 96 85 75 65 56 49 42 37 33
SHEAR (KTS) 11 9 9 9 8 12 18 24 26 34 34 37 41
SHEAR DIR 118 131 147 171 161 175 174 195 205 221 227 228 222
SST (C) 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.2 26.0 25.7 25.7 25.8 26.1 26.6 26.9 27.1
POT. INT. (KT) 129 128 127 127 126 124 121 121 122 124 129 132 134
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.4 -53.7 -54.0 -53.8 -54.1 -54.0 -54.4 -54.6 -55.0 -55.4 -55.6 -55.2
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 6
700-500 MB RH 53 52 49 50 47 51 49 48 44 43 40 43 42
GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 7 6 4 4 4
850 MB ENV VOR 21 25 28 30 26 21 13 7 -9 -20 -18 -9 -2
200 MB DIV 46 46 37 17 16 27 -8 -11 -12 -13 6 6 10
LAND (KM) 1562 1452 1342 1223 1105 873 636 424 221 160 264 295 271
LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.4 13.6 13.9 14.2 14.8 15.6 16.3 17.1 17.8 18.4 19.1 19.9
LONG(DEG W) 141.7 142.8 143.8 144.9 146.0 148.2 150.4 152.6 154.7 156.6 158.3 159.8 161.2
STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 8 7 8
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 528 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 12.2 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -12. -17. -26. -34. -42. -48. -53. -55. -57. -59.
VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -17. -21. -25.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -6. -5.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -8. -13. -19. -31. -43. -55. -65. -75. -83. -88. -90.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -9. -16. -23. -36. -48. -59. -69. -78. -86. -91. -94.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP092007 FLOSSIE 08/12/07 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 9.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.4 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 7.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 93.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.2 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.2
Scaled RI index= 3.2 Prob of RI= 12% is 0.9 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 3.0 Prob of RI= 6% is 0.4 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092007 FLOSSIE 08/12/07 00 UTC ##
## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ##
## AHI= 1 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY