* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING *
* INVEST AL902007 08/12/07 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 27 30 34 37 43 48 51 53 58 59
V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 27 30 34 37 43 48 51 53 58 59
V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 24 24 24 25 27 30 34 37 39
SHEAR (KTS) 22 17 23 20 19 18 12 11 12 16 14 25 18
SHEAR DIR 77 71 81 83 79 71 69 47 41 64 56 34 6
SST (C) 27.3 27.6 27.8 27.4 27.0 26.1 26.2 26.7 26.9 27.7 28.4 28.6 28.7
POT. INT. (KT) 130 135 138 133 128 119 120 125 127 136 144 146 146
ADJ. POT. INT. 132 141 145 140 134 123 123 129 130 140 147 144 142
200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.3 -51.7 -51.8 -52.2 -51.5 -52.3 -51.9 -52.7 -52.0 -52.8 -51.7 -52.5
TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 7 8 9 9
700-500 MB RH 67 67 64 63 61 61 60 58 59 61 65 64 70
GFS VTEX (KT) 12 14 15 16 19 19 19 20 21 21 20 24 24
850 MB ENV VOR 26 33 33 38 45 69 76 77 91 92 97 90 73
200 MB DIV 39 26 24 6 18 18 -2 22 52 54 70 68 37
LAND (KM) 562 743 938 1164 1394 1883 1717 1399 1096 891 596 350 245
LAT (DEG N) 12.2 12.6 13.0 13.4 13.7 14.3 14.5 14.6 14.1 13.6 13.0 12.9 12.9
LONG(DEG W) 22.0 24.0 26.0 28.2 30.4 35.0 39.7 44.3 48.6 52.6 56.0 58.6 60.3
STM SPEED (KT) 16 20 21 22 22 23 22 22 20 18 15 11 8
HEAT CONTENT 6 9 9 9 6 0 2 8 17 40 66 71 65
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 16. 20. 25. 29. 32. 34.
VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -10. -10.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -11. -11. -12.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5. 7. 7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 12. 18. 23. 26. 28. 33. 34.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 12. 18. 23. 26. 28. 33. 34.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL902007 INVEST 08/12/07 06 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.6 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0
Scaled RI index= 999.0 Prob of RI= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 999.0 Prob of RI= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL902007 INVEST 08/12/07 06 UTC ##
## ERR=2, BOTH IR FILES BAD OR MISSING