* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* FLOSSIE EP092007 08/12/07 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 115 112 107 102 95 82 69 56 49 41 35 29 23
V (KT) LAND 115 112 107 102 95 82 69 56 49 41 35 29 23
V (KT) LGE mod 115 111 105 99 93 82 72 62 53 45 40 35 31
SHEAR (KTS) 7 7 8 8 12 15 22 27 28 32 32 42 48
SHEAR DIR 116 139 162 161 164 180 190 197 212 230 240 257 254
SST (C) 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.2 26.1 25.8 25.7 25.7 25.9 26.4 26.8 27.1 27.2
POT. INT. (KT) 128 127 127 126 125 122 121 120 122 127 131 135 136
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.7 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -53.8 -54.4 -54.5 -55.2 -55.2 -56.0 -55.7
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 6 7
700-500 MB RH 48 46 46 44 46 44 43 44 39 38 37 37 38
GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 10 10 9 9 8 6 6 5 4 3 2
850 MB ENV VOR 25 25 25 25 22 14 1 -13 -27 -29 -36 -15 -29
200 MB DIV 48 37 21 24 28 1 -23 -32 -20 13 -19 8 -2
LAND (KM) 1428 1311 1196 1075 956 715 508 301 144 195 317 304 328
LAT (DEG N) 13.4 13.7 13.9 14.3 14.6 15.4 16.0 16.8 17.6 18.2 18.6 19.4 20.6
LONG(DEG W) 143.0 144.1 145.2 146.3 147.4 149.6 151.7 153.8 155.7 157.5 159.2 160.9 162.6
STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 11 11 11 10 9 9 9 9 10
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 501 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 11.5 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 98.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -11. -15. -24. -32. -39. -45. -49. -51. -53. -54.
VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -11. -12. -15. -18. -22. -27.
PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -12. -18. -30. -43. -56. -64. -71. -78. -84. -90.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -8. -13. -20. -33. -46. -59. -66. -74. -80. -86. -92.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP092007 FLOSSIE 08/12/07 06 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5
D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 11.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.2 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.5 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3
Scaled RI index= 3.0 Prob of RI= 9% is 0.7 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092007 FLOSSIE 08/12/07 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY