* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL902007 08/12/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 28 31 34 39 43 50 53 57 61 61 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 28 31 34 39 43 50 53 57 61 61 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 24 24 25 26 29 33 38 43 46 SHEAR (KTS) 19 25 20 20 17 14 15 11 11 12 21 13 25 SHEAR DIR 66 80 83 82 77 74 54 56 47 71 32 27 15 SST (C) 27.6 27.8 27.7 27.3 26.8 26.3 26.5 26.8 27.1 28.1 28.5 28.7 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 134 137 136 131 126 121 123 126 129 141 146 148 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 144 142 137 130 124 126 131 134 148 151 148 145 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -51.6 -51.9 -52.2 -52.0 -52.1 -52.2 -52.3 -52.7 -52.4 -52.6 -52.3 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 5 5 5 6 6 6 8 8 9 8 700-500 MB RH 67 65 64 62 63 62 59 56 63 59 65 65 71 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 16 19 20 19 20 19 22 22 23 25 26 850 MB ENV VOR 34 32 35 40 54 68 69 79 95 91 102 102 93 200 MB DIV 25 25 6 20 21 13 10 11 37 57 53 70 40 LAND (KM) 785 975 1173 1392 1613 1902 1570 1275 1021 785 404 222 200 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.6 12.9 13.2 13.4 13.9 14.1 14.2 14.1 13.7 13.2 12.8 12.5 LONG(DEG W) 24.3 26.3 28.2 30.3 32.4 36.7 41.2 45.6 50.2 54.4 58.2 61.1 63.3 STM SPEED (KT) 18 19 20 21 21 21 21 22 21 20 17 12 11 HEAT CONTENT 10 10 11 9 5 2 8 13 25 52 72 55 44 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 16. 21. 26. 29. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -10. -12. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 3. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 6. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 3. 5. 9. 14. 18. 26. 30. 33. 38. 39. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 14. 18. 25. 28. 32. 36. 36. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL902007 INVEST 08/12/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 113.6 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 1.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.7 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 9% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.9 Prob of RI= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12%)