* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * FLOSSIE EP092007 08/12/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 116 110 103 96 83 69 59 51 45 39 34 32 V (KT) LAND 120 116 110 103 96 83 69 59 51 45 39 34 32 V (KT) LGE mod 120 115 109 102 96 83 73 63 55 48 44 40 36 SHEAR (KTS) 6 8 7 10 11 17 22 24 22 26 32 36 33 SHEAR DIR 127 161 156 162 158 173 192 192 206 232 256 256 247 SST (C) 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.2 26.0 25.7 25.6 25.7 26.0 26.5 26.9 27.2 27.2 POT. INT. (KT) 128 127 127 126 124 120 119 120 123 128 132 135 135 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -54.0 -53.7 -53.8 -53.9 -53.8 -54.2 -54.4 -54.8 -54.9 -55.1 -55.3 -55.4 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 700-500 MB RH 46 44 46 44 50 47 46 44 42 41 44 40 38 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 9 9 8 9 7 8 6 5 4 3 4 850 MB ENV VOR 28 26 26 24 16 8 -2 -17 -36 -38 -30 -23 -26 200 MB DIV 41 24 25 34 25 -6 -23 -9 15 9 6 -24 -5 LAND (KM) 1329 1211 1094 979 865 652 434 242 147 238 290 301 376 LAT (DEG N) 13.5 13.8 14.1 14.5 14.8 15.6 16.4 17.1 17.7 18.3 19.1 19.7 20.4 LONG(DEG W) 144.0 145.1 146.2 147.3 148.3 150.2 152.3 154.3 156.2 158.0 159.7 161.4 163.0 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 10.9 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -8. -12. -17. -27. -36. -43. -49. -53. -55. -57. -58. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -11. -11. -12. -15. -19. -22. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -2. -5. -6. -8. -8. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -4. -9. -15. -21. -34. -47. -57. -66. -72. -78. -84. -86. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -4. -10. -17. -24. -37. -51. -60. -69. -75. -81. -86. -88. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP092007 FLOSSIE 08/12/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 6.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 10.9 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3 Scaled RI index= 3.0 Prob of RI= 9% is 0.7 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 2.9 Prob of RI= 4% is 0.3 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092007 FLOSSIE 08/12/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY