* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL902007 08/12/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 30 31 36 42 49 54 58 65 69 70 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 30 31 36 42 49 54 58 65 69 70 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 24 24 24 27 32 39 48 58 65 SHEAR (KTS) 25 21 19 20 20 11 5 7 8 7 13 14 13 SHEAR DIR 78 76 79 79 76 70 67 9 45 1 8 357 25 SST (C) 27.8 27.7 27.5 26.9 26.4 26.3 26.5 26.8 27.5 28.3 28.7 28.8 28.9 POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 134 127 122 121 123 126 134 145 150 150 151 ADJ. POT. INT. 142 142 140 132 125 125 128 132 141 152 155 152 152 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.2 -51.6 -52.4 -52.1 -52.6 -52.3 -52.9 -52.7 -52.7 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 9 9 10 700-500 MB RH 67 66 67 66 65 65 60 61 61 60 61 68 69 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 18 20 20 20 21 21 20 19 23 24 25 850 MB ENV VOR 20 26 26 41 47 46 60 72 75 83 95 101 95 200 MB DIV 32 20 40 52 41 18 28 23 53 24 10 23 63 LAND (KM) 914 1108 1307 1532 1759 1812 1492 1194 1008 574 345 314 304 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.8 13.1 13.4 13.7 14.1 14.6 14.7 14.7 14.3 13.9 13.5 13.6 LONG(DEG W) 25.6 27.6 29.5 31.7 33.8 38.2 42.9 47.8 52.6 57.1 61.2 64.4 67.0 STM SPEED (KT) 18 19 20 21 21 22 23 23 23 21 18 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 12 11 9 6 3 2 9 14 37 63 69 47 66 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 554 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 43.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 10. 16. 21. 26. 30. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 5. 6. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 6. 11. 18. 24. 30. 35. 41. 46. 48. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 2. 5. 6. 11. 17. 24. 29. 33. 40. 44. 45. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL902007 INVEST 08/12/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 37.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.0 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 39.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.5 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 3.5 Prob of RI= 10% is 0.8 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.9 Prob of RI= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12%)