* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* FLOSSIE EP092007 08/12/07 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 115 109 101 93 86 72 62 52 47 40 34 29 26
V (KT) LAND 115 109 101 93 86 72 62 52 47 40 34 29 26
V (KT) LGE mod 115 109 103 96 89 78 68 59 51 46 41 37 34
SHEAR (KTS) 9 10 12 12 14 21 22 23 26 29 36 39 45
SHEAR DIR 168 172 173 166 174 186 192 198 220 246 232 235 241
SST (C) 26.4 26.3 26.1 25.9 25.8 25.7 25.7 25.9 26.2 26.7 27.1 27.2 27.3
POT. INT. (KT) 128 127 125 123 122 120 120 121 125 131 135 136 138
200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.0 -54.0 -54.3 -54.4 -54.1 -54.6 -54.4 -54.7 -54.6 -55.5 -55.4 -55.8
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 6 7 7
700-500 MB RH 44 44 45 48 46 48 46 44 41 39 39 38 42
GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 8 8 8 8 8 6 6 5 4 4 3
850 MB ENV VOR 30 22 18 12 9 3 -14 -27 -40 -41 -18 -24 -15
200 MB DIV 12 5 -2 3 -2 5 6 -1 25 -1 4 3 7
LAND (KM) 1208 1085 962 838 715 500 299 145 137 275 272 349 556
LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.1 14.5 15.0 15.4 16.1 16.9 17.6 18.2 18.8 19.6 20.4 21.1
LONG(DEG W) 145.2 146.3 147.4 148.5 149.6 151.7 153.7 155.4 156.8 158.5 160.6 162.7 165.1
STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 12 11 10 10 8 8 10 11 11 12
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 544 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 93.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -11. -16. -25. -33. -40. -45. -49. -51. -52. -53.
VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -4. -6. -10. -12. -14. -15. -16. -20. -24. -29.
PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -6. -13. -20. -27. -40. -49. -59. -65. -72. -78. -84. -87.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -6. -14. -22. -29. -43. -53. -63. -68. -75. -81. -86. -89.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP092007 FLOSSIE 08/12/07 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.3 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.2 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 10.0 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 84.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.3
Scaled RI index= 2.6 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 2.5 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%)