* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL902007 08/13/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 27 29 32 37 43 51 56 63 69 74 71 V (KT) LAND 25 25 27 29 32 37 43 51 56 63 69 74 71 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 25 25 27 31 36 45 54 64 70 SHEAR (KTS) 19 21 18 15 12 10 4 6 1 12 5 18 7 SHEAR DIR 67 76 81 90 81 33 23 29 266 354 54 18 11 SST (C) 27.8 27.5 27.0 26.5 26.2 26.2 26.6 27.0 28.1 28.6 28.8 28.9 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 137 134 128 123 120 120 125 129 143 149 151 151 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 141 140 133 127 123 124 130 135 152 158 157 153 145 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -52.7 -52.4 -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -52.6 -52.3 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -51.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 5 6 7 7 8 8 10 8 10 700-500 MB RH 65 65 63 63 64 59 55 56 53 60 63 67 70 GFS VTEX (KT) 14 17 19 20 20 20 21 21 19 20 23 26 21 850 MB ENV VOR 27 27 36 47 55 48 59 77 75 95 104 117 109 200 MB DIV 16 34 65 54 27 2 -21 18 16 33 63 56 35 LAND (KM) 1062 1271 1484 1716 1949 1686 1370 1103 772 389 311 271 155 LAT (DEG N) 12.7 13.1 13.4 13.8 14.1 14.6 14.9 14.9 14.7 14.1 13.5 13.0 12.9 LONG(DEG W) 27.1 29.2 31.2 33.4 35.6 40.2 45.1 50.2 55.1 59.8 63.6 66.7 68.8 STM SPEED (KT) 17 20 21 22 22 23 24 24 23 21 17 13 10 HEAT CONTENT 10 10 7 3 1 2 8 25 57 76 50 52 67 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 30.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 5. 9. 15. 21. 26. 30. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 4. 4. 3. 2. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 5. 7. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 12. 19. 26. 32. 38. 45. 51. 49. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 2. 4. 7. 12. 18. 26. 31. 38. 44. 49. 46. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL902007 INVEST 08/13/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 39.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 107.7 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 26.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.6 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Scaled RI index= 3.3 Prob of RI= 7% is 0.6 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.7 Prob of RI= 16% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12%)