* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* FLOSSIE EP092007 08/13/07 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 115 107 97 88 81 65 55 45 40 35 28 21 16
V (KT) LAND 115 107 97 88 81 65 55 45 40 35 28 21 16
V (KT) LGE mod 115 109 102 95 89 78 68 60 54 48 43 39 34
SHEAR (KTS) 11 11 12 13 16 17 24 25 29 36 40 49 51
SHEAR DIR 152 152 157 160 169 182 178 216 249 252 248 244 249
SST (C) 26.4 26.3 26.1 25.9 25.8 25.7 25.8 26.2 26.7 27.0 27.2 27.3 27.4
POT. INT. (KT) 128 127 125 123 122 121 122 125 130 134 136 137 138
200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -54.0 -54.4 -54.3 -54.9 -54.9 -54.9 -55.3 -55.5 -55.8
TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7
700-500 MB RH 43 42 47 49 48 49 42 42 41 40 38 39 39
GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 9 10 9 8 6 5 4 3 2 2
850 MB ENV VOR 25 22 17 19 16 3 -12 -27 -39 -38 -36 -33 -32
200 MB DIV 21 12 20 7 10 26 1 0 -5 -13 -27 2 -18
LAND (KM) 1095 966 838 721 606 406 204 183 299 289 367 537 727
LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.2 14.6 15.1 15.5 16.3 17.1 17.9 18.6 19.4 20.1 20.7 21.3
LONG(DEG W) 146.4 147.6 148.8 149.9 150.9 152.9 155.2 157.1 158.7 160.5 162.7 164.8 166.8
STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 11 10 11 11 9 9 10 11 10 10
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 16.2 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -11. -16. -25. -33. -39. -44. -47. -49. -50. -52.
VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -4. -5. -7. -11. -14. -15. -17. -20. -25. -30. -36.
PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 11.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -9.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -6. -13. -20. -26. -38. -48. -59. -66. -73. -82. -88. -93.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. -10. -9. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -2. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -11. -9. -7. -6. -6. -6.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -8. -18. -27. -34. -50. -60. -70. -75. -80. -87. -94. -99.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP092007 FLOSSIE 08/13/07 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 12.7 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3
D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.0 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 10.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 70.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.2 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0
Scaled RI index= 2.2 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 2.1 Prob of RI= 2% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%)