* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * INVEST AL902007 08/13/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 30 34 38 44 49 56 61 63 66 66 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 30 34 38 44 49 56 61 63 66 66 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 26 26 27 28 31 36 43 50 56 60 SHEAR (KTS) 14 20 16 15 13 13 8 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 72 73 84 78 57 48 6 348 301 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.7 27.4 26.8 26.4 26.3 26.3 26.6 27.0 28.0 28.5 28.8 28.9 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 135 132 125 121 120 121 124 129 141 148 152 152 145 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 136 128 123 123 124 129 134 149 155 159 157 146 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.1 -52.4 -52.1 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 5 5 6 6 7 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 67 65 67 64 60 56 55 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 14 15 16 17 19 19 19 18 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 28 34 46 53 39 44 44 49 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 24 59 61 53 45 8 5 27 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1246 1429 1614 1820 1911 1647 1370 1173 833 533 420 337 187 LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.9 13.3 13.6 13.9 14.5 14.9 15.5 15.5 15.4 14.8 14.3 13.8 LONG(DEG W) 28.8 30.6 32.4 34.4 36.3 40.6 45.1 50.0 55.0 59.6 63.8 67.6 70.5 STM SPEED (KT) 17 18 19 19 20 21 23 24 23 21 19 17 14 HEAT CONTENT 13 10 5 3 2 4 8 23 56 67 72 73 77 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 529 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 26. 30. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 9. 13. 19. 25. 31. 36. 38. 41. 41. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 9. 13. 19. 25. 31. 36. 38. 41. 41. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL902007 INVEST 08/13/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 15.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 48.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.6 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Scaled RI index= 999.0 Prob of RI= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 999.0 Prob of RI= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12%)