* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * FLOSSIE EP092007 08/13/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 115 109 101 92 84 67 58 48 40 35 25 20 DIS V (KT) LAND 115 109 101 92 84 67 58 48 40 35 25 20 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 115 110 104 97 90 79 69 61 54 49 44 39 34 SHEAR (KTS) 11 11 10 15 18 20 20 24 32 38 43 50 45 SHEAR DIR 155 152 151 164 179 180 196 217 256 247 239 236 234 SST (C) 26.3 26.1 25.9 25.8 25.7 25.8 26.0 26.4 26.9 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 127 125 123 122 121 121 123 128 133 136 136 138 140 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -54.0 -54.1 -53.8 -53.8 -54.3 -54.1 -54.5 -54.7 -55.2 -54.5 -55.2 -55.5 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 7 8 700-500 MB RH 41 44 47 47 47 48 45 42 44 40 36 40 46 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 11 11 11 9 10 7 5 5 4 5 2 850 MB ENV VOR 26 17 17 20 9 -5 -20 -34 -42 -36 -37 -22 -41 200 MB DIV 17 22 4 22 26 11 2 10 2 0 -12 -2 7 LAND (KM) 966 846 729 602 480 276 158 218 295 297 394 609 872 LAT (DEG N) 14.2 14.7 15.1 15.6 16.1 16.8 17.5 18.3 19.1 19.9 20.6 21.0 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 147.6 148.7 149.7 150.9 152.0 154.2 155.9 157.8 159.8 161.6 163.3 165.6 168.2 STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 12 12 11 10 9 10 10 9 10 11 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 88.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -12. -17. -26. -33. -39. -43. -46. -48. -50. -51. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -15. -17. -20. -26. -32. -36. PERSISTENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -2. -7. -10. -9. -12. -10. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -5. -11. -18. -25. -39. -48. -59. -69. -75. -85. -91. -97. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -8. -6. -5. -5. -4. -5. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -6. -14. -23. -31. -48. -57. -67. -75. -80. -90. -95.-101. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP092007 FLOSSIE 08/13/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.1 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.2 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 8.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 79.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Scaled RI index= 2.4 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 2.4 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%)