* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * FOUR AL042007 08/13/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 38 41 46 52 57 62 65 65 66 65 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 38 41 46 52 57 62 65 65 66 65 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 34 34 36 38 44 51 61 68 74 79 SHEAR (KTS) 22 19 17 15 17 13 6 7 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 70 78 79 67 52 52 341 271 323 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.6 27.2 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.8 27.2 28.1 28.6 28.7 29.0 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 134 129 125 124 123 122 126 131 142 149 150 154 149 ADJ. POT. INT. 138 131 127 126 125 125 131 137 150 156 155 157 150 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.1 -52.6 -52.1 -52.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 68 69 66 63 62 57 51 60 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 15 16 17 19 20 20 21 19 18 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 25 36 44 33 32 51 51 43 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 61 71 57 47 11 -5 15 0 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1457 1618 1781 1855 1830 1556 1303 1129 790 571 290 326 250 LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.5 12.9 13.3 13.6 14.2 14.8 15.4 15.8 15.9 15.7 15.2 14.7 LONG(DEG W) 30.7 32.3 33.9 35.8 37.6 41.5 46.0 50.9 55.8 60.3 64.6 68.2 71.2 STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 18 18 19 21 23 24 23 21 19 16 15 HEAT CONTENT 13 9 6 4 3 8 11 29 57 71 72 78 95 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 487 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 31.4 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 19. 24. 27. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 1. 1. -1. -1. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 11. 16. 23. 28. 33. 36. 37. 38. 38. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 11. 16. 22. 27. 32. 35. 35. 36. 35. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL042007 FOUR 08/13/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.2 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 48.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.4 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 Scaled RI index= 3.6 Prob of RI= 11% is 0.9 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.9 Prob of RI= 19% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042007 FOUR 08/13/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY