* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL912007 08/13/07 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 37 45 53 59 63 68 72 75 75
V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 37 45 53 44 32 28 27 27 27
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 35 40 36 30 28 27 27 27
SHEAR (KTS) 7 7 11 9 9 15 3 8 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 261 177 191 221 201 200 226 213 242 N/A N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 30.2 29.8 29.7 29.9 30.2 30.3 29.8 29.3 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.6 29.1
POT. INT. (KT) 172 166 165 169 172 172 167 157 162 165 164 160 151
ADJ. POT. INT. 164 155 154 158 163 163 153 140 142 142 139 133 125
200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.2 -51.9 -52.2 -52.3 -51.8 -52.1 -51.6 -51.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 9 11 11 11 10 13 9 13 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 73 71 73 66 64 65 60 60 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A
GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 8 9 8 8 5 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 45 51 49 47 41 23 14 0 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 22 26 36 41 23 28 13 12 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 103 83 122 204 288 427 150 -79 -268 -438 -587 -625 -609
LAT (DEG N) 21.8 22.3 22.7 23.2 23.6 24.5 25.3 26.4 27.4 28.4 29.1 29.9 30.5
LONG(DEG W) 85.8 87.0 88.1 89.4 90.7 93.2 95.8 98.1 100.1 101.7 103.1 104.2 105.0
STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 12 13 13 12 12 11 9 8 7 5 5
HEAT CONTENT 135 83 45 46 65 45 52 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 600 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 31.3 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 30. 34. 36. 38.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. 14.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -2. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 11. 19. 28. 35. 38. 44. 49. 51. 52.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 8. 12. 20. 28. 34. 38. 43. 47. 50. 50.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL912007 INVEST 08/13/07 12 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.0 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 49.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.3 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
Scaled RI index= 3.9 Prob of RI= 14% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 4.4 Prob of RI= 34% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912007 INVEST 08/13/07 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY