* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * FLOSSIE EP092007 08/13/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 120 115 106 96 87 71 57 48 44 43 41 40 40 V (KT) LAND 120 115 106 96 87 71 57 48 44 43 41 40 40 V (KT) LGE mod 120 115 108 101 94 82 72 65 58 53 48 44 40 SHEAR (KTS) 9 9 12 14 14 19 20 25 32 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 156 146 157 178 184 180 195 236 257 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.1 25.9 25.8 25.7 25.7 25.8 26.1 26.5 26.9 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 125 123 122 121 121 121 124 129 133 135 135 137 139 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -54.2 -54.4 -54.2 -54.6 -55.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 42 43 42 48 48 45 44 41 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 11 12 11 11 8 6 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 19 16 9 -4 -19 -31 -43 -34 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 4 11 29 21 6 26 8 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 830 709 592 485 377 202 183 298 300 375 534 766 1030 LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.1 15.5 15.9 16.3 17.1 17.9 18.7 19.4 20.1 20.8 21.4 22.0 LONG(DEG W) 148.9 150.0 151.1 152.2 153.3 155.3 157.1 158.9 160.8 162.8 164.8 167.2 169.8 STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 11 11 11 10 9 10 10 10 11 12 12 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 86.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -4. -9. -14. -20. -30. -37. -43. -47. -51. -53. -55. -56. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -14. -16. -15. -16. -16. -16. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -8. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -3. -10. -17. -25. -39. -52. -62. -68. -70. -73. -74. -74. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV -2. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -9. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -2. -4. -7. -8. -11. -11. -10. -8. -7. -6. -6. -6. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -5. -14. -24. -33. -49. -63. -72. -76. -77. -79. -80. -80. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP092007 FLOSSIE 08/13/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.5 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 11.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 2.3 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 81.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 Scaled RI index= 2.5 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 2.5 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%)