* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * FOUR AL042007 08/13/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 37 38 45 50 57 63 68 73 76 75 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 37 38 45 50 57 63 68 73 76 75 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 33 33 33 34 35 39 45 53 63 73 84 SHEAR (KTS) 18 22 25 24 18 13 16 9 13 8 9 6 8 SHEAR DIR 75 68 58 58 59 50 68 44 48 336 12 273 36 SST (C) 27.4 27.2 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.6 27.6 27.4 27.8 28.3 28.6 28.6 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 132 129 128 128 129 134 134 131 136 143 147 147 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 134 132 132 133 137 137 133 138 146 150 147 146 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.6 -52.9 -52.8 -51.9 -53.0 -52.4 -53.1 -51.6 -52.3 -51.6 -51.9 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 9 10 10 11 700-500 MB RH 68 70 71 69 69 66 65 62 60 56 56 51 49 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 18 20 19 18 21 21 22 23 22 26 25 22 850 MB ENV VOR 31 29 8 14 19 41 50 69 84 85 101 113 124 200 MB DIV 75 64 71 33 31 18 43 49 72 69 38 31 61 LAND (KM) 1632 1757 1681 1640 1531 1251 1026 882 851 685 464 510 233 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 11.8 11.7 11.7 11.7 11.7 11.8 12.3 13.2 14.0 14.5 15.3 16.3 LONG(DEG W) 32.3 34.2 36.0 37.8 39.6 42.9 46.2 49.3 52.4 55.6 59.0 62.0 64.6 STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 18 18 17 16 16 16 16 16 16 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 10 8 10 11 11 18 27 27 40 67 69 72 66 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 483 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 19. 24. 27. 30. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 6. 5. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 4. 5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 8. 16. 20. 28. 34. 39. 44. 48. 48. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 7. 8. 15. 20. 27. 33. 38. 43. 46. 45. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL042007 FOUR 08/13/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 21.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.3 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 81.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.3 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 3.7 Prob of RI= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042007 FOUR 08/13/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY