* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL912007 08/13/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 36 43 50 56 60 67 68 70 66 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 36 43 50 35 29 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 34 39 31 28 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 9 15 12 8 9 6 6 6 4 10 13 25 24 SHEAR DIR 182 181 198 198 181 232 166 230 229 282 283 296 300 SST (C) 29.8 29.6 29.8 30.1 30.3 30.1 29.4 29.5 29.8 29.5 28.8 27.5 26.2 POT. INT. (KT) 166 163 167 172 172 173 159 160 165 159 146 127 113 ADJ. POT. INT. 155 151 156 162 165 160 145 141 142 134 122 105 94 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 -52.1 -51.8 -51.6 -51.4 -51.4 -51.5 -51.5 -51.5 -51.8 -52.0 TH_E DEV (C) 11 12 12 11 11 10 10 10 12 12 12 14 13 700-500 MB RH 72 72 66 64 63 61 63 59 58 57 56 55 53 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 11 11 11 10 8 5 2 4 1 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 51 48 50 44 42 24 3 -3 13 26 -11 18 -5 200 MB DIV 31 49 47 13 23 16 21 7 16 -3 10 27 -6 LAND (KM) 67 100 172 265 363 313 37 -147 -340 -487 -646 -736 -765 LAT (DEG N) 22.1 22.5 22.9 23.5 24.0 25.0 26.3 27.8 29.1 30.1 31.0 31.8 32.6 LONG(DEG W) 86.9 88.1 89.2 90.5 91.7 94.2 96.9 98.8 100.4 101.5 102.8 103.3 102.9 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 13 12 13 12 10 8 7 6 4 4 HEAT CONTENT 84 42 44 58 77 32 30 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 11 CX,CY: -9/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 555 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 19. 24. 29. 33. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 13. 13. 14. 12. 10. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -5. -7. -6. -8. -6. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 11. 18. 26. 31. 36. 43. 45. 47. 44. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 11. 18. 25. 31. 35. 42. 43. 45. 41. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL912007 INVEST 08/13/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.5 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 46.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.2 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 15% is 1.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.5 Prob of RI= 36% is 2.9 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912007 INVEST 08/13/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY