* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* FLOSSIE EP092007 08/13/07 18 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 105 98 91 83 77 65 55 50 45 35 25 19 16
V (KT) LAND 105 98 91 83 77 65 55 50 45 35 25 19 16
V (KT) LGE mod 105 99 93 87 82 74 67 62 56 50 44 38 33
SHEAR (KTS) 7 9 13 13 12 19 20 28 42 47 50 49 44
SHEAR DIR 160 154 184 189 194 212 228 244 257 253 250 249 263
SST (C) 25.9 25.8 25.7 25.7 25.7 26.0 26.5 26.9 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.3 27.6
POT. INT. (KT) 124 123 121 121 121 124 129 132 134 135 135 138 141
200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.6 -53.7 -54.2 -54.3 -54.3 -54.8 -54.6 -54.9 -54.5 -54.9 -55.3 -55.8
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 7 8 8
700-500 MB RH 45 41 44 46 45 44 40 41 45 42 44 42 44
GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 12 11 11 10 6 6 7 5 3 3 3
850 MB ENV VOR 23 14 10 1 -16 -27 -34 -42 -29 -36 -32 -41 -39
200 MB DIV 9 -2 27 22 1 12 26 0 5 -20 6 -2 -5
LAND (KM) 713 582 458 344 241 160 301 311 341 465 658 897 1163
LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.5 16.0 16.5 16.9 17.8 18.5 19.2 19.9 20.5 21.1 21.7 22.4
LONG(DEG W) 150.0 151.3 152.5 153.6 154.7 156.6 158.7 160.5 162.2 164.0 166.1 168.5 171.1
STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 11 11 10 10 9 9 10 11 12 12
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4
T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 15.7 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 92.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -10. -14. -21. -27. -31. -35. -37. -39. -41. -42.
VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -16. -22. -29. -35. -40.
PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 11. 12.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -6. -6. -6. -8. -10. -10. -9.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -6. -12. -17. -22. -32. -42. -48. -55. -65. -76. -82. -85.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -7. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -4.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -7. -14. -22. -28. -40. -50. -55. -60. -70. -80. -86. -89.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP092007 FLOSSIE 08/13/07 18 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.4 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 16.8 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.2 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 88.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.5
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.7 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1
Scaled RI index= 2.4 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 2.2 Prob of RI= 3% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092007 FLOSSIE 08/13/07 18 UTC ##
## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ##
## AHI= 57 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY