* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * FOUR AL042007 08/14/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 35 36 42 49 58 63 72 75 80 84 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 35 36 42 49 58 63 72 75 80 84 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 30 31 33 39 47 57 66 75 84 SHEAR (KTS) 21 19 20 18 14 10 0 5 7 13 8 2 6 SHEAR DIR 73 57 49 58 49 60 132 349 16 14 98 15 186 SST (C) 27.1 27.1 27.0 27.1 27.2 27.5 27.4 27.2 27.6 28.1 28.3 28.5 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 127 127 126 127 128 132 131 128 133 140 142 145 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 129 128 127 128 130 134 132 128 133 140 141 140 141 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -53.0 -52.8 -51.9 -52.3 -53.1 -52.5 -53.0 -52.6 -52.9 -52.2 -52.2 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 65 64 68 67 65 65 63 65 62 63 60 64 64 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 18 19 19 18 19 19 20 17 23 23 24 27 850 MB ENV VOR 32 12 10 18 26 32 42 64 61 67 69 63 59 200 MB DIV 55 73 60 44 24 17 53 59 83 90 61 66 92 LAND (KM) 1775 1722 1684 1628 1491 1245 1074 943 891 773 681 626 360 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.0 12.0 12.0 11.9 12.1 12.5 12.9 13.5 14.4 15.9 16.8 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 34.2 35.7 37.2 38.7 40.2 43.4 46.4 49.3 52.1 54.9 57.5 60.0 62.4 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 15 15 15 15 14 14 14 14 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 8 9 10 11 12 18 21 25 37 57 59 65 65 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 501 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 28.1 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 18. 22. 25. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 4. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 1. 5. 4. 5. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 6. 12. 20. 28. 34. 44. 47. 52. 57. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 5. 6. 12. 19. 28. 33. 42. 45. 50. 54. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL042007 FOUR 08/14/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 51.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 98.5 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 54.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 28.1 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 3.7 Prob of RI= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.9 Prob of RI= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042007 FOUR 08/14/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY