* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL912007 08/14/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 42 45 53 58 63 69 72 74 72 69 V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 42 45 53 51 35 29 28 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 30 32 35 38 41 47 54 34 29 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 12 12 7 10 13 4 11 7 8 8 16 21 24 SHEAR DIR 184 197 193 169 195 174 175 181 229 307 278 312 313 SST (C) 29.6 29.6 29.9 30.2 30.4 29.9 29.3 29.6 29.8 29.7 29.3 28.9 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 162 163 168 172 172 169 158 162 165 163 154 146 144 ADJ. POT. INT. 150 152 157 163 167 155 142 143 143 138 128 118 116 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -51.8 -51.5 -51.5 -51.0 -51.4 -51.1 -51.6 -51.4 -51.9 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 11 11 10 11 12 9 12 8 15 9 16 11 16 700-500 MB RH 75 70 68 65 64 62 66 59 61 61 62 59 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 11 11 12 11 10 6 3 4 3 3 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 42 46 45 38 41 28 13 5 27 6 4 -6 2 200 MB DIV 48 52 30 22 25 42 16 2 26 -10 18 10 8 LAND (KM) 58 130 215 308 415 220 -17 -224 -410 -590 -660 -645 -664 LAT (DEG N) 22.1 22.6 23.1 23.7 24.2 25.2 26.6 27.7 28.8 29.5 30.3 30.7 30.9 LONG(DEG W) 87.7 88.9 90.0 91.2 92.4 95.1 97.5 99.6 101.3 103.0 104.1 104.7 104.6 STM SPEED (KT) 10 12 12 12 13 13 12 10 9 7 5 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 45 42 46 72 62 47 10 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 62.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 13. 11. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 23. 28. 33. 40. 44. 46. 44. 42. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 12. 15. 23. 28. 33. 39. 42. 44. 42. 39. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL912007 INVEST 08/14/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 10.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 35.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 127.6 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 51.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.2 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 4.2 Prob of RI= 24% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.6 Prob of RI= 40% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912007 INVEST 08/14/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY