* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * FLOSSIE EP092007 08/14/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 105 94 83 73 66 52 47 42 35 28 22 16 16 V (KT) LAND 105 94 83 73 66 52 47 42 35 28 22 16 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 105 97 90 85 80 72 66 62 56 50 44 39 36 SHEAR (KTS) 10 14 15 13 16 16 22 34 44 40 39 42 26 SHEAR DIR 157 188 197 201 193 222 210 245 250 235 234 230 227 SST (C) 25.8 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.8 26.3 26.8 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.3 27.5 27.9 POT. INT. (KT) 122 121 121 121 122 127 132 135 135 135 137 139 143 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.5 -53.9 -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.2 -54.6 -54.6 -55.0 -55.2 -55.5 -55.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 38 42 46 45 51 46 42 45 42 41 40 41 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 11 11 11 8 8 6 5 4 4 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 13 7 -1 -20 -27 -26 -40 -41 -43 -42 -58 -64 -73 200 MB DIV 7 29 19 4 8 22 34 -5 -5 -8 1 13 23 LAND (KM) 563 451 334 232 169 242 341 364 479 658 869 1092 1317 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 16.1 16.5 17.0 17.4 18.2 18.8 19.6 20.4 21.1 21.4 22.0 22.7 LONG(DEG W) 151.4 152.6 153.7 154.8 155.9 158.0 160.1 162.2 164.1 166.1 168.2 170.4 172.6 STM SPEED (KT) 13 12 11 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 10 11 11 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 120 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 20.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 83.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -10. -14. -21. -26. -30. -33. -36. -38. -39. -40. VERTICAL SHEAR -1. -4. -5. -7. -9. -11. -15. -20. -25. -30. -35. -36. PERSISTENCE -4. -7. -8. -8. -6. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -5. -5. -8. -9. -11. -11. -12. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -8. -16. -22. -28. -39. -43. -50. -59. -68. -76. -82. -82. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. -14. -12. -9. -7. -6. -7. -7. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. -15. -13. -10. -9. -7. -7. -8. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -11. -22. -32. -39. -53. -58. -63. -70. -77. -83. -89. -89. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP092007 FLOSSIE 08/14/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -15.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 13.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : 13.4 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 16.4 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 74.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 20.6 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 Scaled RI index= 1.7 Prob of RI= 2% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 1.7 Prob of RI= 2% is 0.1 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092007 FLOSSIE 08/14/07 00 UTC ## ## PASSED SCREENING STEP, MIGHT BE ANNULAR, CALCULATE AHI FROM DISCRIMINANT ANALYSIS ## ## AHI= 4 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY