* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES AND/OR OHC INPUT MISSING * * FOUR AL042007 08/14/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 34 36 37 46 54 60 71 79 86 88 92 V (KT) LAND 30 31 34 36 37 46 54 60 71 79 86 88 92 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 31 31 33 37 43 52 63 75 86 92 SHEAR (KTS) 18 17 14 12 11 8 2 10 3 7 4 6 10 SHEAR DIR 50 47 74 72 54 33 13 52 68 32 195 330 301 SST (C) 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.5 27.2 27.3 27.8 28.2 28.4 28.5 28.6 POT. INT. (KT) 128 127 127 128 131 132 128 129 136 141 144 145 146 ADJ. POT. INT. 130 128 128 129 132 133 128 129 135 140 142 140 139 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.8 -52.0 -52.5 -53.0 -52.5 -53.2 -52.1 -52.9 -51.5 -52.0 -50.1 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 65 70 68 67 67 68 63 62 63 65 65 68 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 19 19 19 16 20 20 19 23 23 26 24 27 850 MB ENV VOR 14 12 11 18 27 30 44 62 61 69 75 76 71 200 MB DIV 69 66 55 22 34 46 22 76 77 109 97 141 85 LAND (KM) 1713 1673 1598 1468 1345 1151 999 924 897 721 679 445 224 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 12.0 11.9 12.0 12.0 12.3 12.8 13.4 14.2 15.3 16.6 17.9 19.0 LONG(DEG W) 36.0 37.5 39.0 40.5 42.0 45.0 48.0 50.8 53.5 56.2 59.0 61.5 63.7 STM SPEED (KT) 16 15 15 15 15 15 14 14 14 14 14 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 10 10 11 13 15 20 23 28 45 61 63 68 70 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 489 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 9. 14. 18. 23. 25. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 3. 3. 3. 5. 5. 7. 5. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 6. 7. 16. 24. 30. 41. 49. 56. 58. 62. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 4. 6. 7. 16. 24. 30. 41. 49. 56. 58. 62. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL042007 FOUR 08/14/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 49.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 99.6 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Scaled RI index= 999.0 Prob of RI= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 999.0 Prob of RI= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042007 FOUR 08/14/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## NOTE: 1 INSTEAD OF 2 GOES FILES USED