* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* INVEST AL912007 08/14/07 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 30 33 37 40 44 52 57 64 72 75 79 77 73
V (KT) LAND 30 33 37 40 44 52 43 32 28 27 27 27 27
V (KT) LGE mod 30 33 36 39 42 49 44 32 28 27 27 27 27
SHEAR (KTS) 9 6 8 13 7 5 3 5 3 7 8 11 12
SHEAR DIR 204 200 159 188 232 135 156 152 236 268 301 314 348
SST (C) 29.5 29.7 30.0 30.2 30.3 29.8 29.3 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.6
POT. INT. (KT) 160 165 170 172 172 167 157 162 165 165 162 159 158
ADJ. POT. INT. 146 153 158 162 164 153 142 143 144 142 137 132 129
200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -51.9 -51.5 -51.6 -51.4 -51.3 -51.2 -51.5 -51.3 -51.6 -51.9 -52.1
TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 12 13 10 11 11 12 12 13 13 12 9
700-500 MB RH 73 72 67 65 67 66 64 63 64 67 64 58 55
GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 11 10 10 8 5 4 4 2 4 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 67 56 43 44 48 26 16 21 26 -8 4 -28 -12
200 MB DIV 46 31 21 22 27 15 1 29 5 24 10 -12 -8
LAND (KM) 75 160 245 337 448 160 -81 -287 -472 -554 -478 -441 -386
LAT (DEG N) 22.2 22.7 23.2 23.7 24.1 25.3 26.3 27.3 28.0 28.6 29.2 29.7 29.8
LONG(DEG W) 88.4 89.6 90.7 91.9 93.1 95.7 98.1 100.3 102.1 104.1 105.5 106.5 107.2
STM SPEED (KT) 9 12 12 12 12 13 11 10 9 8 6 4 3
HEAT CONTENT 39 40 58 75 61 52 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999
FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 535 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.4 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 12. 18. 22. 27. 30. 32. 33.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 15. 16. 17. 16. 16.
PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -6. -6. -7. -6. -7. -7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 23. 28. 35. 43. 46. 50. 48. 47.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 7. 10. 14. 22. 27. 34. 42. 45. 50. 47. 43.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL912007 INVEST 08/14/07 06 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6
D200 (10**7s-1) : 29.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.9 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.9
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 20.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.4 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3
Scaled RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 13% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 4.3 Prob of RI= 32% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912007 INVEST 08/14/07 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY