* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT MISSING * * FLOSSIE EP092007 08/14/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 100 93 86 79 72 63 55 44 35 24 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 100 93 86 79 72 63 55 44 35 24 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 100 94 88 83 78 71 65 59 51 43 37 32 28 SHEAR (KTS) 13 15 14 19 21 21 38 55 49 52 54 39 34 SHEAR DIR 186 202 201 209 231 215 232 246 246 241 232 239 266 SST (C) 25.7 25.7 25.7 25.9 26.1 26.7 27.1 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.5 27.8 28.0 POT. INT. (KT) 121 121 121 123 125 132 136 135 135 136 139 142 144 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -54.0 -54.3 -54.4 -54.5 -55.0 -54.9 -55.5 -54.8 -55.3 -55.1 -55.7 -55.5 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 8 9 700-500 MB RH 42 44 42 45 43 45 46 44 44 45 43 45 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 12 10 10 10 9 7 7 6 6 4 3 3 3 850 MB ENV VOR 10 -1 -16 -24 -31 -34 -41 -34 -27 -43 -51 -61 -78 200 MB DIV 28 8 -1 8 3 55 -2 10 32 6 0 -13 -47 LAND (KM) 443 318 209 160 191 309 341 477 653 844 1051 1252 1454 LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.6 17.1 17.6 18.0 18.9 19.8 20.7 21.4 22.1 22.8 23.6 24.4 LONG(DEG W) 152.6 153.8 155.0 156.2 157.3 159.7 162.1 164.2 166.1 168.0 170.0 171.9 173.8 STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 13 12 12 12 12 10 9 9 10 10 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: -99.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -5. -9. -12. -17. -21. -25. -28. -31. -32. -34. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -4. -6. -9. -12. -17. -26. -32. -38. -46. -51. -53. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 8. 9. 11. 13. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -9. -11. -13. -12. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -7. -14. -21. -28. -37. -45. -56. -65. -76. -87. -90. -90. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -7. -14. -21. -28. -37. -45. -56. -65. -76. -87. -90. -90. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP092007 FLOSSIE 08/14/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 16.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 9.2 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 22.5 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C:9999.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 999.9 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val:999.0/999.0 Scaled RI index= 999.0 Prob of RI= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index=999.0 Prob of RI= 999% is 999.0 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092007 FLOSSIE 08/14/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY