* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * FOUR AL042007 08/14/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 35 43 50 56 65 76 80 88 88 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 35 43 50 56 65 76 80 88 88 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 30 30 30 31 35 40 49 60 73 87 96 SHEAR (KTS) 26 20 15 13 14 11 9 8 2 4 4 2 16 SHEAR DIR 48 62 64 57 64 66 20 1 232 160 313 177 299 SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.4 27.6 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.9 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 129 128 130 133 133 132 130 137 143 145 147 146 147 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 129 131 134 135 133 131 137 143 145 144 141 139 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.0 -52.4 -52.9 -53.1 -52.7 -52.9 -52.5 -52.6 -51.9 -52.0 -51.4 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 67 68 64 67 65 64 66 62 62 67 65 69 72 GFS VTEX (KT) 18 20 19 16 16 20 20 20 21 25 24 28 27 850 MB ENV VOR 11 4 8 14 16 24 47 53 62 80 78 65 43 200 MB DIV 44 38 10 31 34 65 38 62 70 104 104 152 122 LAND (KM) 1623 1491 1365 1259 1163 978 876 853 682 549 536 268 76 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.7 11.7 11.8 11.9 12.1 12.6 13.3 14.1 15.1 16.3 17.5 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 38.6 40.1 41.5 42.9 44.3 47.3 50.1 52.9 55.7 58.5 61.1 63.3 65.2 STM SPEED (KT) 18 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 14 13 12 10 HEAT CONTENT 11 12 15 18 22 26 28 44 67 63 68 65 67 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ -2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 419 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 10. 15. 19. 24. 27. 29. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 5. 3. 6. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 2. 4. 12. 20. 27. 36. 48. 52. 61. 61. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 2. 3. 5. 13. 20. 26. 35. 46. 50. 58. 58. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL042007 FOUR 08/14/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 17.7 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.6 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 61.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.0 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 21% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042007 FOUR 08/14/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY