* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL912007 08/14/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 29 31 38 45 55 62 69 71 74 72 V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 29 31 38 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 24 24 25 26 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 SHEAR (KTS) 4 8 11 5 4 7 8 5 2 9 11 11 13 SHEAR DIR 209 137 170 200 165 150 146 176 213 246 309 312 340 SST (C) 29.6 29.9 30.2 30.3 30.2 29.6 29.3 29.6 29.8 29.8 29.7 29.5 29.5 POT. INT. (KT) 162 168 172 172 172 163 157 162 165 165 161 156 155 ADJ. POT. INT. 149 155 161 163 160 148 139 142 144 141 133 127 125 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -51.8 -51.5 -51.5 -51.7 -51.2 -51.5 -51.2 -51.5 -51.2 -51.7 -51.6 -52.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 11 13 10 9 12 9 15 10 16 11 15 9 700-500 MB RH 71 69 66 66 67 67 66 64 65 66 61 55 54 GFS VTEX (KT) 9 10 9 9 9 6 5 4 3 4 3 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 57 44 47 49 43 22 28 33 10 -5 -18 -18 -16 200 MB DIV 32 27 28 33 24 14 9 37 -16 10 -10 6 -7 LAND (KM) 146 228 322 432 339 73 -124 -310 -512 -556 -507 -512 -485 LAT (DEG N) 22.5 23.0 23.5 24.0 24.4 25.6 26.7 27.6 28.1 28.9 29.5 29.9 29.9 LONG(DEG W) 89.8 90.9 91.9 93.1 94.2 96.5 98.6 100.5 102.5 104.3 105.4 105.8 106.1 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 11 12 12 10 9 9 7 4 2 1 HEAT CONTENT 39 58 74 66 37 42 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM BAMM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.7 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 21.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 12. 18. 24. 29. 32. 35. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 14. 16. 17. 17. 17. 16. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 0. 2. 4. 7. 13. 21. 30. 37. 45. 47. 50. 50. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 0. 1. 4. 6. 13. 20. 30. 37. 44. 46. 49. 47. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL912007 INVEST 08/14/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.8 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.8 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 17.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.7 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 12% is 1.0 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.3 Prob of RI= 30% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912007 INVEST 08/14/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY