* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * DEAN AL042007 08/14/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 37 40 44 47 55 59 66 79 85 89 90 90 V (KT) LAND 35 37 40 44 47 55 59 66 79 85 89 90 90 V (KT) LGE mod 35 37 39 40 41 45 50 56 64 74 85 94 98 SHEAR (KTS) 18 14 14 13 12 10 19 9 6 12 4 4 9 SHEAR DIR 58 59 40 41 72 5 10 3 330 248 36 313 303 SST (C) 27.3 27.5 27.7 27.7 27.6 27.7 28.3 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 131 133 135 135 133 134 142 146 146 146 146 147 148 ADJ. POT. INT. 136 138 140 138 135 137 145 146 144 145 143 140 138 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.6 -53.0 -53.2 -52.4 -53.1 -52.2 -53.3 -51.8 -52.2 -51.2 -51.7 -50.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 66 66 68 69 67 72 70 68 68 70 72 75 74 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 16 17 19 19 19 16 17 24 26 27 26 27 850 MB ENV VOR 9 13 10 13 16 39 48 48 74 80 76 61 79 200 MB DIV 34 14 22 36 50 80 74 60 109 71 123 35 125 LAND (KM) 1471 1312 1167 1056 949 784 706 638 505 466 460 215 30 LAT (DEG N) 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 11.6 12.0 12.8 13.8 14.8 15.7 16.8 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 40.2 42.1 43.9 45.5 47.1 49.9 53.1 55.5 57.5 59.7 62.3 64.3 65.7 STM SPEED (KT) 18 18 17 16 15 15 14 12 11 13 12 10 8 HEAT CONTENT 13 16 23 24 26 31 52 66 69 70 70 64 68 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 18 CX,CY: -17/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 464 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 15. 19. 23. 25. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 1. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 7. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 20. 24. 32. 45. 52. 56. 57. 58. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 9. 12. 20. 24. 31. 44. 50. 54. 55. 55. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL042007 DEAN 08/14/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 14.0 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 102.5 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.5 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 80.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 4.1 Prob of RI= 21% is 1.7 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.3 Prob of RI= 30% is 2.5 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042007 DEAN 08/14/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY