* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL912007 08/14/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 34 41 48 57 63 68 69 68 68 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 34 41 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 35 29 27 27 27 27 27 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 3 12 4 3 6 6 5 3 6 17 19 34 N/A SHEAR DIR 128 187 274 149 155 158 140 276 265 303 310 332 N/A SST (C) 30.0 30.3 30.4 30.3 30.0 29.3 29.4 29.7 29.8 29.6 29.0 27.7 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 169 172 172 173 171 157 158 162 163 160 149 130 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 154 161 166 167 158 138 138 138 135 132 123 108 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.5 -51.7 -51.7 -51.4 -51.5 -51.4 -51.4 -51.5 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 13 11 9 11 10 12 12 13 14 14 13 N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 68 66 64 65 62 64 62 64 61 56 54 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 9 10 9 7 5 4 4 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 30 32 26 18 10 18 30 0 -5 -13 8 N/A 200 MB DIV 28 23 20 5 11 16 41 10 16 3 -2 -1 N/A LAND (KM) 247 332 422 395 250 18 -144 -342 -393 -443 -533 -616 N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.4 24.0 24.5 25.3 26.0 27.0 27.6 28.4 29.1 29.9 30.8 31.8 N/A LONG(DEG W) 90.0 91.0 91.9 93.3 94.7 97.2 98.8 100.7 101.0 101.1 101.5 101.6 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 12 15 14 10 9 6 4 5 5 5 N/A HEAT CONTENT 50 76 72 40 37 25 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 26.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 49.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 0. 5. 12. 18. 23. 28. 31. 33. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 17. 17. 16. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 16. 23. 32. 39. 44. 46. 45. 46. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 9. 16. 23. 32. 38. 43. 44. 43. 43. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL912007 INVEST 08/14/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 135.9 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 76.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 26.8 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.5 Prob of RI= 37% is 3.0 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912007 INVEST 08/14/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY