* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * FLOSSIE EP092007 08/14/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 90 81 71 61 53 41 30 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 90 81 71 61 53 41 30 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 90 84 79 75 71 64 57 49 41 34 28 25 23 SHEAR (KTS) 18 16 21 20 24 34 45 55 55 47 39 30 26 SHEAR DIR 203 211 219 223 216 241 252 250 242 239 250 267 283 SST (C) 25.7 25.8 25.9 26.2 26.5 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.3 27.7 28.0 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 120 122 123 126 129 134 135 135 136 137 141 144 146 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.1 -54.3 -54.6 -54.7 -54.6 -55.1 -55.0 -55.3 -54.9 -55.3 -55.2 -55.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 7 8 9 8 9 8 9 7 700-500 MB RH 45 42 42 42 43 42 44 35 38 35 37 34 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 6 5 5 4 2 3 2 2 2 2 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -14 -19 -25 -25 -34 -32 -45 -64 -78 -72 -78 -71 200 MB DIV 4 3 7 34 31 -6 6 -36 10 -41 -13 -7 -1 LAND (KM) 246 167 154 209 306 313 414 591 786 978 1184 1370 1557 LAT (DEG N) 17.0 17.4 17.8 18.2 18.6 19.4 20.2 20.9 21.5 22.1 22.6 23.1 23.7 LONG(DEG W) 154.4 155.5 156.5 157.7 158.8 161.1 163.3 165.4 167.4 169.3 171.3 173.1 174.9 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 11 12 12 11 11 10 10 9 9 9 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 623 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.6 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 68.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -17. -20. -22. -23. -24. -25. VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -5. -7. -10. -16. -23. -31. -39. -44. -48. -50. -50. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -5. -6. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -8. -7. -7. -8. -8. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -7. -13. -20. -26. -36. -46. -59. -67. -75. -81. -83. -80. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV -3. -6. -8. -10. -12. -12. -11. -8. -7. -6. -6. -6. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -3. -6. -9. -11. -14. -15. -13. -10. -8. -7. -7. -7. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -9. -19. -29. -37. -49. -60. -73. -78. -83. -88. -90. -86. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP092007 FLOSSIE 08/14/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 20.0 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.1 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 64.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 60.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.6 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Scaled RI index= 1.3 Prob of RI= 2% is 0.1 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 1.3 Prob of RI= 2% is 0.1 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092007 FLOSSIE 08/14/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY