* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * DEAN AL042007 08/15/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 48 51 55 58 65 71 81 88 96 95 93 95 V (KT) LAND 45 48 51 55 58 65 71 81 88 96 95 93 80 V (KT) LGE mod 45 49 52 54 57 62 70 80 89 96 101 106 94 SHEAR (KTS) 15 13 12 5 1 9 5 7 7 2 2 7 3 SHEAR DIR 54 37 28 88 67 339 7 347 186 215 186 57 140 SST (C) 27.3 27.5 27.6 27.5 27.3 27.7 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 POT. INT. (KT) 130 132 134 132 130 135 144 147 147 148 149 151 153 ADJ. POT. INT. 131 136 137 135 132 137 148 149 147 145 146 148 149 200 MB T (C) -52.8 -53.2 -52.9 -52.5 -52.9 -53.3 -52.9 -52.7 -52.1 -52.0 -51.6 -51.3 -51.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 9 8 10 9 10 9 10 700-500 MB RH 63 63 68 67 63 71 64 65 65 63 68 68 69 GFS VTEX (KT) 15 18 19 17 16 18 14 19 21 25 22 21 26 850 MB ENV VOR 20 16 13 12 13 34 37 47 60 71 86 84 107 200 MB DIV 9 40 48 46 1 53 103 89 66 105 76 27 44 LAND (KM) 1379 1251 1138 1045 955 818 741 497 438 430 234 113 -16 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 12.0 12.0 12.2 12.4 12.6 13.1 13.8 14.7 15.4 16.0 17.1 18.4 LONG(DEG W) 41.5 43.2 44.8 46.5 48.1 51.4 54.6 57.6 60.4 62.9 65.2 67.7 70.3 STM SPEED (KT) 15 16 16 16 16 16 15 15 14 12 12 13 14 HEAT CONTENT 15 18 22 22 25 34 60 70 74 72 73 71 88 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 38.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 13. 15. 18. 19. 20. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 13. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. -1. 2. 3. 6. 4. 3. 6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 7. 11. 14. 22. 27. 37. 44. 51. 51. 50. 53. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 10. 13. 20. 26. 36. 43. 51. 50. 48. 50. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL042007 DEAN 08/15/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 28.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.4 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 79.4 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 31.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.5 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042007 DEAN 08/15/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY