* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * INVEST AL912007 08/15/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 34 41 49 56 64 66 65 63 62 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 34 33 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 28 30 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 13 5 5 9 9 5 9 6 16 23 30 31 N/A SHEAR DIR 184 226 155 152 182 172 229 277 270 313 314 334 N/A SST (C) 30.2 30.4 30.3 30.1 29.7 29.2 29.6 29.8 29.6 28.9 27.3 25.6 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 171 172 172 172 165 155 162 164 160 148 126 108 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 159 167 164 159 149 138 141 139 133 123 104 90 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.8 -51.9 -51.6 -51.4 -51.6 -51.3 -51.6 -51.3 -51.8 -51.7 -52.4 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 9 11 13 9 15 10 16 11 15 10 N/A 700-500 MB RH 71 67 64 63 64 64 62 58 57 51 53 50 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 9 7 6 5 4 3 4 3 2 2 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 34 36 26 15 7 -3 16 10 -5 -22 -16 -16 N/A 200 MB DIV 30 20 6 6 17 20 30 -5 33 -28 32 8 N/A LAND (KM) 288 396 423 288 161 -52 -238 -426 -484 -526 -621 -697 N/A LAT (DEG N) 23.6 24.3 24.9 25.5 26.0 26.9 28.0 29.0 29.9 31.0 32.1 33.2 N/A LONG(DEG W) 90.7 91.9 93.1 94.4 95.6 97.9 99.7 101.4 101.6 101.2 101.3 101.1 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 13 13 13 12 10 9 6 5 6 6 5 N/A HEAT CONTENT 65 77 44 33 38 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 498 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 27.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. -1. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 31. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 14. 15. 14. 13. 10. 9. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 8. 16. 25. 32. 39. 42. 42. 40. 40. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 9. 16. 24. 31. 39. 41. 40. 38. 37. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL912007 INVEST 08/15/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 15.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 134.4 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 27.8 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.4 Prob of RI= 33% is 2.7 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL912007 INVEST 08/15/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY