* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* FLOSSIE EP092007 08/15/07 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 85 76 68 59 50 36 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 85 76 68 59 50 36 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 85 80 75 71 67 59 52 44 36 30 25 23 21
SHEAR (KTS) 18 21 19 24 29 40 46 53 50 47 35 23 18
SHEAR DIR 227 232 232 233 230 242 248 246 244 245 250 242 248
SST (C) 25.7 25.9 26.1 26.3 26.6 27.0 27.1 27.1 27.2 27.4 27.8 28.1 28.2
POT. INT. (KT) 120 122 125 127 130 134 135 135 136 138 142 145 146
200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -54.5 -54.7 -54.4 -54.6 -54.9 -54.9 -55.2 -55.0 -55.2 -55.3 -55.1
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 8
700-500 MB RH 43 46 45 44 41 42 38 35 33 32 32 36 37
GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 8 7 6 4 4 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -7 -15 -25 -24 -27 -31 -33 -37 -61 -67 -86 -90 -95
200 MB DIV 10 9 39 26 15 -3 0 -6 -23 -12 -50 -23 -17
LAND (KM) 185 136 153 221 255 260 380 592 813 1030 1249 1478 1686
LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.8 18.2 18.7 19.1 19.9 20.7 21.4 22.1 22.7 23.3 23.9 24.4
LONG(DEG W) 155.1 156.1 157.0 158.0 158.9 161.0 163.2 165.5 167.7 169.8 171.9 174.1 176.1
STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 10 11 11 11 11 10 10 10 9
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 7 CX,CY: -5/ 3
T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -6. -9. -12. -14. -17. -18. -19. -20. -20.
VERTICAL SHEAR -2. -4. -7. -10. -17. -25. -33. -40. -46. -49. -49. -48.
PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 12.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -9. -10. -9. -8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -9.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -7. -12. -18. -25. -37. -48. -60. -68. -76. -82. -81. -77.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV -2. -5. -8. -9. -11. -12. -10. -7. -6. -5. -6. -6.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -2. -5. -8. -9. -12. -13. -12. -9. -7. -6. -6. -6.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -9. -17. -26. -35. -49. -61. -72. -77. -84. -88. -87. -83.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP092007 FLOSSIE 08/15/07 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -10.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 22.2 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.8 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 39.7 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 63.2 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7
Scaled RI index= 1.5 Prob of RI= 2% is 0.1 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 1.4 Prob of RI= 2% is 0.1 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092007 FLOSSIE 08/15/07 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY