* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* DEAN AL042007 08/15/07 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 45 47 49 52 56 61 67 79 85 92 94 94 92
V (KT) LAND 45 47 49 52 56 61 67 79 85 92 94 94 92
V (KT) LGE mod 45 47 49 52 54 60 68 76 85 94 103 109 110
SHEAR (KTS) 11 12 9 2 7 9 8 4 2 4 2 9 2
SHEAR DIR 34 28 68 17 335 1 330 318 68 37 187 70 252
SST (C) 27.5 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.5 28.1 28.6 28.7 28.7 28.8 29.0 29.0 29.3
POT. INT. (KT) 132 132 131 130 133 141 147 148 148 150 153 152 157
ADJ. POT. INT. 135 135 134 133 136 145 150 148 148 150 152 147 149
200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -52.6 -53.2 -53.4 -52.5 -53.2 -52.0 -52.4 -51.7 -51.4 -50.7 -51.6
TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 10 9 9 9 10 11
700-500 MB RH 59 64 64 61 62 62 61 58 66 64 66 66 66
GFS VTEX (KT) 18 18 18 17 18 16 15 21 21 25 24 23 21
850 MB ENV VOR 16 16 17 15 20 34 38 42 53 73 93 107 96
200 MB DIV 27 47 43 17 37 66 58 72 49 85 57 81 -5
LAND (KM) 1245 1139 1036 935 861 812 532 396 455 287 196 86 33
LAT (DEG N) 12.1 12.2 12.3 12.4 12.5 13.1 13.7 14.2 14.8 15.5 16.4 17.2 17.8
LONG(DEG W) 43.4 45.1 46.7 48.5 50.2 53.7 57.1 59.9 62.5 65.2 68.2 70.7 72.8
STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 17 17 17 17 15 13 14 14 14 12 10
HEAT CONTENT 18 20 22 25 29 53 69 72 69 74 75 85 104
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 16 CX,CY: -15/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.4 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 50.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 10. 14. 16. 18. 20. 21. 21.
VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 11. 13.
PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. 0. -2. -3. 1. 1. 4. 3. 2. 0.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 5.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 17. 23. 35. 41. 48. 51. 51. 50.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 7. 11. 16. 22. 34. 40. 47. 49. 49. 47.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL042007 DEAN 08/15/07 06 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.1 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.7
D200 (10**7s-1) : 34.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.0 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.3
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 40.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.4 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4
Scaled RI index= 3.9 Prob of RI= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042007 DEAN 08/15/07 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY