* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED *
* FIVE AL052007 08/15/07 06 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 31 35 42 50 58 64 67 71 69 70
V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 31 35 36 30 28 27 27 27 27 27
V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 DIS
SHEAR (KTS) 4 3 5 1 3 4 6 3 14 11 18 11 N/A
SHEAR DIR 268 78 106 172 359 46 316 253 316 344 332 356 N/A
SST (C) 30.4 30.4 30.3 30.1 29.9 29.3 29.6 29.8 29.7 29.4 28.9 27.3 N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 171 171 172 172 168 157 162 164 161 156 147 125 N/A
ADJ. POT. INT. 160 160 159 156 151 138 142 140 133 128 121 104 N/A
200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.8 -51.5 -51.3 -51.5 -51.2 -51.5 -51.4 -51.4 -51.4 -51.2 -51.4 N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 11 10 12 13 11 12 12 15 14 14 13 13 N/A
700-500 MB RH 65 66 62 65 62 62 63 63 58 55 49 44 N/A
GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 3 4 LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR 34 20 15 7 -3 -5 7 0 9 0 12 -11 N/A
200 MB DIV 23 24 16 13 23 31 14 13 1 18 6 -26 N/A
LAND (KM) 383 469 404 295 198 -24 -230 -428 -527 -576 -665 -743 N/A
LAT (DEG N) 24.3 24.8 25.3 25.9 26.5 27.4 28.1 28.8 29.5 30.2 30.9 31.9 N/A
LONG(DEG W) 91.4 92.3 93.2 94.3 95.3 97.6 99.6 101.5 102.3 102.5 103.1 103.3 N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 11 11 10 9 7 4 4 4 5 N/A
HEAT CONTENT 75 61 41 35 38 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5
T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 551 (MEAN=625)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 24.5 (MEAN=20.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 53.0 (MEAN=69.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13.
SST POTENTIAL 0. -1. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 28. 31. 33. 35.
VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 14. 17. 18. 18. 17. 16. 16.
PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -8. -8.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -7. -6. -7. -7.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 5. 9. 17. 25. 33. 40. 44. 48. 46. 47.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2.
GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3.
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TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 4. 6. 10. 17. 25. 33. 39. 42. 46. 44. 45.
** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL052007 FIVE 08/15/07 06 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8
D200 (10**7s-1) : 19.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 132.4 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 43.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 24.5 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4
Scaled RI index= 4.1 Prob of RI= 22% is 1.8 times the sample mean(12%)
Discrim RI index= 4.6 Prob of RI= 40% is 3.3 times the sample mean(12%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052007 FIVE 08/15/07 06 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY