* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * DEAN AL042007 08/15/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 50 52 55 58 61 67 76 85 92 94 96 99 100 V (KT) LAND 50 52 55 58 61 67 76 85 92 94 96 99 100 V (KT) LGE mod 50 52 55 57 60 67 74 83 92 102 110 115 118 SHEAR (KTS) 15 4 3 8 14 9 8 2 4 3 6 0 14 SHEAR DIR 28 52 347 338 342 327 353 243 268 253 341 75 312 SST (C) 27.5 27.4 27.3 27.4 27.7 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.7 28.9 29.0 29.1 29.6 POT. INT. (KT) 133 131 130 132 135 145 147 147 148 151 153 155 163 ADJ. POT. INT. 137 134 133 135 140 149 150 147 147 150 152 152 160 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -52.4 -52.9 -53.3 -53.1 -53.1 -52.6 -52.1 -52.5 -52.2 -52.0 -51.4 -51.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 8 8 9 10 10 9 10 8 10 10 700-500 MB RH 63 64 60 64 67 59 60 66 64 68 71 69 67 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 17 17 17 18 17 20 21 23 21 21 22 25 850 MB ENV VOR 15 16 11 13 21 26 32 38 55 84 92 105 87 200 MB DIV 40 42 12 19 50 39 89 74 45 25 57 23 53 LAND (KM) 1144 1045 957 891 840 668 446 450 339 237 207 111 87 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.5 12.6 12.8 13.0 13.5 14.2 14.8 15.3 15.8 16.3 17.1 18.0 LONG(DEG W) 45.1 46.8 48.4 50.2 52.0 55.5 58.8 61.7 64.4 67.2 70.0 72.7 75.4 STM SPEED (KT) 17 16 17 18 18 17 15 14 13 14 14 14 13 HEAT CONTENT 19 21 24 27 38 64 70 72 65 71 83 101 109 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 17 CX,CY: -16/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.9 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 12. 14. 16. 17. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 1. 2. 3. 1. 1. 2. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 9. 12. 18. 27. 36. 43. 46. 48. 50. 51. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 2. 5. 8. 11. 17. 26. 35. 42. 44. 46. 49. 50. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL042007 DEAN 08/15/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.5 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 85.5 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 77.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 52.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.9 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 15% is 1.2 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 22% is 1.9 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042007 DEAN 08/15/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY