* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * FIVE AL052007 08/15/07 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 28 31 34 43 50 59 64 70 71 73 73 V (KT) LAND 25 26 28 31 34 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 2 7 7 0 2 2 3 9 10 13 21 12 N/A SHEAR DIR 173 128 165 110 185 313 331 279 333 302 351 347 N/A SST (C) 30.3 30.1 29.8 29.6 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.8 29.7 29.6 29.1 27.9 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 172 172 166 162 157 160 163 164 161 159 151 133 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 162 156 149 144 138 139 141 139 132 130 124 109 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -51.5 -51.3 -51.4 -51.4 -51.0 -51.3 -50.7 -51.3 -51.1 -51.8 -51.7 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 11 13 11 9 14 10 16 11 18 11 16 N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 63 64 62 60 61 61 62 56 54 51 46 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 9 9 9 9 8 6 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 15 8 8 3 19 11 10 -5 9 6 6 N/A 200 MB DIV 10 13 28 20 14 24 5 24 -28 12 -14 -4 N/A LAND (KM) 420 303 190 105 25 -162 -348 -513 -593 -619 -691 -740 N/A LAT (DEG N) 24.7 25.2 25.7 26.3 26.8 27.5 28.2 28.8 29.3 30.0 30.6 31.5 N/A LONG(DEG W) 93.2 94.3 95.3 96.2 97.1 99.0 100.8 102.4 103.1 103.1 103.6 103.6 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 11 10 10 10 9 8 6 3 3 4 4 N/A HEAT CONTENT 46 32 45 35 28 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 503 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 34.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 18. 23. 27. 30. 32. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 15. 17. 18. 18. 17. 16. 16. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 18. 26. 35. 40. 46. 48. 50. 51. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 9. 18. 25. 34. 39. 45. 46. 48. 48. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL052007 FIVE 08/15/07 12 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.8 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 124.8 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.9 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 57.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 34.2 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Scaled RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 13% is 1.1 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.3 Prob of RI= 31% is 2.6 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052007 FIVE 08/15/07 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY