* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* FLOSSIE EP092007 08/15/07 12 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 45 33 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LAND 45 33 24 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 45 33 26 23 20 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
SHEAR (KTS) 21 25 23 29 35 46 50 50 47 38 28 N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 245 256 254 252 249 250 242 239 238 239 257 N/A N/A
SST (C) 26.1 26.2 26.4 26.6 26.8 27.0 27.1 27.3 27.6 27.9 28.3 N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 124 125 127 129 132 134 136 138 141 145 149 N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.8 -54.2 -54.2 -54.6 -54.7 -54.8 -55.0 -55.0 -55.2 -55.4 N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 42 43 43 42 42 42 40 39 40 40 41 N/A N/A
GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 6 4 4 4 3 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -37 -35 -30 -48 -50 -39 -34 -43 -46 -50 -38 N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 32 23 4 7 16 23 8 1 4 -17 0 N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 248 297 366 404 411 478 659 885 1137 1414 1707 N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.6 17.8 18.1 18.4 19.0 19.4 19.8 20.2 20.7 21.2 N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 157.3 158.2 159.1 160.1 161.0 163.1 165.5 168.0 170.6 173.4 176.3 N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 10 10 11 12 12 13 14 13 N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 728 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 6.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11.
VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -2. -3. -9. -15. -23. -31. -36. -38. -40. -42.
PERSISTENCE -10. -18. -23. -26. -29. -30. -29. -25. -23. -21. -17. -12.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 13.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -10. -18. -25. -30. -36. -43. -48. -51. -51. -51. -47. -41.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. -3. 0. -1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -3. 0. -1. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -12. -21. -29. -34. -41. -49. -55. -57. -54. -51. -48. -41.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP092007 FLOSSIE 08/15/07 12 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -40.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 26.5 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.4 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.9
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 65.0 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 1.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9
Scaled RI index= 1.3 Prob of RI= 2% is 0.1 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 1.9 Prob of RI= 2% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092007 FLOSSIE 08/15/07 12 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY