* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * DEAN AL042007 08/15/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 59 62 65 68 76 84 89 92 97 97 101 103 V (KT) LAND 55 59 62 65 68 76 84 89 92 97 97 101 98 V (KT) LGE mod 55 59 63 67 70 78 86 94 102 109 113 118 127 SHEAR (KTS) 5 4 10 11 6 7 6 4 3 10 5 6 3 SHEAR DIR 19 317 334 342 360 321 342 315 56 290 46 282 278 SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.3 27.7 28.1 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.9 28.9 29.1 29.5 29.9 POT. INT. (KT) 129 129 130 135 141 146 148 149 152 151 155 162 170 ADJ. POT. INT. 132 131 133 139 145 150 151 152 153 149 153 163 170 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -52.6 -53.3 -52.1 -52.6 -52.0 -52.1 -51.1 -51.4 -50.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 10 9 9 9 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 59 57 59 59 64 64 64 63 67 65 66 64 65 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 16 16 16 15 16 20 19 17 20 18 23 23 850 MB ENV VOR 6 5 4 7 19 21 22 33 50 69 90 83 72 200 MB DIV 25 13 23 36 53 36 64 20 68 18 44 19 109 LAND (KM) 1059 974 907 870 811 528 422 339 217 128 139 22 161 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.0 13.1 13.4 13.6 14.2 14.6 15.3 16.1 16.6 16.8 17.6 18.8 LONG(DEG W) 47.0 48.8 50.5 52.3 54.1 57.6 61.0 64.4 67.7 70.8 73.4 76.5 79.7 STM SPEED (KT) 18 17 17 18 18 17 17 17 16 13 14 16 16 HEAT CONTENT 21 23 27 39 53 67 75 65 66 82 93 112 148 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 19 CX,CY: -17/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 575 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 25.6 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 15. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 8. 11. 11. 13. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 2. 1. -1. 1. -1. 3. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 8. 11. 15. 23. 31. 36. 39. 43. 43. 47. 48. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 7. 10. 13. 21. 29. 34. 37. 42. 42. 46. 48. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL042007 DEAN 08/15/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 7.4 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.0 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 81.2 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 75.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.2 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 63.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.6 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 Scaled RI index= 4.0 Prob of RI= 17% is 1.4 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.1 Prob of RI= 24% is 2.0 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042007 DEAN 08/15/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY