* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * ERIN AL052007 08/15/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 40 45 50 55 62 68 72 74 68 65 57 55 V (KT) LAND 35 40 45 50 44 32 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 35 40 44 49 44 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 3 8 1 1 2 6 9 22 18 40 32 40 N/A SHEAR DIR 156 194 348 175 344 320 286 297 295 325 324 330 N/A SST (C) 30.2 29.9 29.6 29.3 29.3 29.6 29.7 28.5 26.4 24.5 23.2 22.6 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 172 168 162 155 156 162 164 143 117 101 92 89 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 158 152 142 134 136 141 142 120 99 87 79 77 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.1 -51.3 -51.3 -50.9 -51.1 -51.0 -51.1 -50.9 -51.6 -51.5 -51.4 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 14 11 9 12 12 13 12 13 10 13 10 N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 66 63 63 66 63 60 55 53 54 55 54 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 9 8 8 8 8 6 6 5 7 5 7 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 13 -1 -6 1 10 14 -1 14 4 -22 -12 -31 N/A 200 MB DIV 22 29 8 0 23 14 31 -2 12 -15 8 -4 N/A LAND (KM) 340 220 102 36 -29 -208 -405 -598 -688 -739 -849 -934 N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.0 26.4 26.7 26.9 27.1 28.0 29.8 31.2 32.6 34.2 35.7 37.1 N/A LONG(DEG W) 93.8 95.1 96.3 97.0 97.7 99.4 100.7 102.0 101.7 100.4 100.1 99.1 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 12 9 7 8 9 10 7 8 9 8 8 N/A HEAT CONTENT 41 39 42 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 12 CX,CY: -8/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 505 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.8 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 18. 19. 19. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 13. 14. 14. 11. 10. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE 2. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 3. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -5. -3. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 13. 18. 25. 32. 37. 40. 36. 33. 25. 23. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 5. 10. 15. 20. 27. 33. 37. 39. 33. 30. 22. 20. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL052007 ERIN 08/15/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 3.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.4 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.5 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.6 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 94.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.8 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 4.8 Prob of RI= 42% is 3.5 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 5.0 Prob of RI= 50% is 4.1 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052007 ERIN 08/15/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY