* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES INPUT INCLUDED * * FLOSSIE EP092007 08/15/07 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 40 34 28 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 40 34 28 23 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 40 34 30 27 25 21 18 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 23 23 29 35 47 51 53 50 46 50 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 248 257 256 252 250 244 234 240 238 236 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.2 26.4 26.6 26.8 26.9 27.1 27.4 27.6 27.9 28.2 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 126 128 131 133 134 136 139 141 144 147 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -54.0 -54.1 -54.5 -54.6 -54.5 -55.0 -55.0 -55.4 -55.0 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 9 9 10 9 10 9 9 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 43 41 42 46 47 46 44 45 44 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 3 3 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -24 -21 -39 -42 -36 -44 -47 -50 -64 -64 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 22 20 12 17 12 -18 7 -28 -17 -24 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 298 396 481 506 553 706 907 1143 1389 1641 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.4 17.5 17.8 18.0 18.7 19.2 19.6 19.9 20.1 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 158.0 159.2 160.4 161.7 163.0 165.6 168.0 170.5 173.0 175.5 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 13 13 12 12 12 12 11 N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 735 (MEAN=582) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 22.8 (MEAN=18.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=65.9) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 7. 9. 12. 14. 15. 15. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -2. -3. -10. -17. -25. -33. -39. -42. -45. -46. PERSISTENCE -5. -9. -12. -13. -16. -16. -16. -14. -13. -12. -10. -7. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 12. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -5. -10. -13. -17. -23. -27. -32. -34. -36. -37. -36. -32. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -5. -2. 0. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -1. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -6. -3. -1. -1. 0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -6. -12. -17. -21. -28. -34. -39. -40. -39. -38. -37. -32. ** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP092007 FLOSSIE 08/15/07 18 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -20.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 31.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.6 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 90.2 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 67.4 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 11.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 22.8 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.7 Scaled RI index= 1.3 Prob of RI= 2% is 0.1 times the sample mean(13%) Discrim RI index= 1.9 Prob of RI= 2% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092007 FLOSSIE 08/15/07 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY