* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * DEAN AL042007 08/16/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 58 61 64 69 77 84 91 93 98 104 110 107 V (KT) LAND 55 58 61 64 69 77 84 91 93 98 104 110 107 V (KT) LGE mod 55 58 61 64 68 77 86 96 104 111 116 123 127 SHEAR (KTS) 5 7 8 6 7 11 3 6 6 1 4 8 14 SHEAR DIR 356 328 324 309 295 347 335 335 138 51 58 37 72 SST (C) 27.2 27.4 27.8 28.2 28.5 28.6 28.7 29.0 28.8 29.1 29.3 29.7 30.1 POT. INT. (KT) 130 132 137 143 147 148 150 154 151 155 159 167 174 ADJ. POT. INT. 134 136 142 149 153 154 154 158 152 156 160 170 174 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.3 -53.1 -52.8 -53.1 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 -52.3 -52.0 -51.4 -51.4 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 10 9 11 10 12 700-500 MB RH 53 54 58 61 61 67 65 63 63 64 58 59 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 17 16 16 15 16 18 18 19 15 16 20 25 21 850 MB ENV VOR 8 9 11 21 22 24 38 63 91 88 81 84 98 200 MB DIV 14 30 37 45 13 53 73 64 26 53 22 49 38 LAND (KM) 957 902 884 741 583 423 359 279 178 191 78 318 245 LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.3 13.6 13.9 14.2 14.6 15.1 15.6 16.0 16.5 17.1 17.9 18.7 LONG(DEG W) 49.2 51.1 53.0 55.0 56.9 60.7 64.4 68.0 71.5 74.7 77.8 81.3 85.2 STM SPEED (KT) 19 19 19 19 19 19 18 17 16 16 16 18 18 HEAT CONTENT 24 30 44 61 67 74 65 67 102 78 119 114 119 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 20 CX,CY: -19/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 585 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. 17. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. -2. -2. 1. 4. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 10. 14. 23. 30. 37. 39. 44. 49. 54. 51. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 3. 6. 9. 14. 22. 29. 36. 38. 43. 49. 55. 52. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL042007 DEAN 08/16/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.8 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 87.8 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.3 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 68.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.0 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.4 Scaled RI index= 4.1 Prob of RI= 20% is 1.6 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.2 Prob of RI= 28% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042007 DEAN 08/16/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY