* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * ERIN AL052007 08/16/07 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 39 43 47 52 58 64 66 68 63 60 55 54 V (KT) LAND 35 39 43 37 32 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 35 38 41 36 32 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 DIS SHEAR (KTS) 8 2 2 2 6 6 16 20 21 35 36 45 N/A SHEAR DIR 207 1 156 333 285 276 265 303 306 339 330 336 N/A SST (C) 29.9 29.6 29.3 29.3 29.5 29.8 29.6 28.8 27.6 25.9 24.6 23.6 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 168 162 156 156 160 165 161 146 129 111 100 94 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 150 143 137 136 138 142 137 121 107 93 85 81 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.3 -51.4 -51.1 -50.8 -51.2 -50.7 -51.0 -51.0 -51.3 -51.5 -52.4 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 11 10 12 13 10 15 11 15 9 15 9 N/A 700-500 MB RH 67 63 63 65 62 60 60 58 57 54 50 47 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 3 2 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 4 -6 -5 2 7 -11 -2 -13 -3 8 -10 -17 N/A 200 MB DIV 43 9 -3 17 45 -5 29 -25 6 -29 -5 -21 N/A LAND (KM) 205 116 28 -50 -132 -318 -482 -646 -684 -712 -772 -820 N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.3 26.7 27.0 27.5 28.0 29.0 30.0 31.0 31.8 32.9 33.9 35.1 N/A LONG(DEG W) 95.2 96.2 97.1 97.9 98.6 100.2 101.5 102.8 102.6 101.7 101.4 100.5 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 8 8 8 8 5 5 6 6 7 N/A HEAT CONTENT 38 40 31 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 546 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 17.0 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 78.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 11. 15. 17. 19. 19. 18. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 13. 13. 11. 9. 6. 4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -5. -5. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 15. 22. 28. 31. 34. 31. 28. 23. 21. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 8. 12. 17. 23. 29. 31. 33. 28. 25. 20. 19. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL052007 ERIN 08/16/07 00 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 5.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.2 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 22.2 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.7 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.2 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 55.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.0 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.6 Scaled RI index= 4.3 Prob of RI= 28% is 2.3 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.6 Prob of RI= 39% is 3.2 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052007 ERIN 08/16/07 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY