* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* GOES INPUT INCLUDED *
* FLOSSIE EP092007 08/16/07 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 33 30 27 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS 15
V (KT) LAND 40 37 33 30 27 21 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS
V (KT) LGE mod 40 38 37 35 34 30 27 23 21 19 DIS DIS DIS
SHEAR (KTS) 24 32 38 46 47 51 50 44 33 40 N/A N/A N/A
SHEAR DIR 256 257 256 254 248 245 241 246 242 244 N/A N/A N/A
SST (C) 26.4 26.6 26.7 26.9 27.0 27.2 27.5 27.7 28.1 28.3 N/A N/A N/A
POT. INT. (KT) 127 130 132 134 135 137 140 142 146 148 N/A N/A N/A
200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.2 -54.5 -54.8 -54.7 -54.7 -55.3 -55.4 -55.7 -55.1 N/A N/A N/A
TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 N/A N/A N/A
700-500 MB RH 42 41 40 46 46 46 45 43 42 42 N/A N/A N/A
GFS VTEX (KT) 5 3 2 2 2 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST
850 MB ENV VOR -23 -38 -40 -36 -32 -36 -39 -55 -58 -58 N/A N/A N/A
200 MB DIV 12 16 11 12 20 -4 -6 -20 -18 -31 N/A N/A N/A
LAND (KM) 372 456 492 530 601 783 1016 1269 1526 1780 N/A N/A N/A
LAT (DEG N) 17.5 17.6 17.7 18.0 18.2 18.8 19.2 19.8 20.2 20.4 N/A N/A N/A
LONG(DEG W) 159.0 160.1 161.2 162.6 163.9 166.5 169.1 171.8 174.4 176.9 N/A N/A N/A
STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 12 13 13 13 13 12 12 11 N/A N/A N/A
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 713 (MEAN=582)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 29.3 (MEAN=18.0)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 31.0 (MEAN=65.9)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
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SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 10. 13. 15. 16. 16. 17.
VERTICAL SHEAR 0. -1. -3. -5. -11. -19. -26. -32. -36. -39. -41. -43.
PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -2.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 10. 12.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
700-500 MB RH 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2.
GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4.
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SUB-TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -6. -7. -12. -16. -20. -22. -24. -25. -25. -23.
SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ----------------------------------------------------------
MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0.
GOES IR STD DEV -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES IR PIXEL COUNT -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -2. 0. -1. 0.
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TOTAL ADJUSTMENT -2. -3. -5. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -4. -2. -2. -2.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE (KT) -3. -7. -10. -13. -19. -24. -28. -29. -28. -27. -27. -25.
** 2007 E. PACIFIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX EP092007 FLOSSIE 08/16/07 00 UTC **
( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): -5.0 Range: -20.0 to 45.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.3
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 37.4 Range: 18.5 to 1.6 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.0/ 0.0
D200 (10**7s-1) : 14.2 Range: -10.0 to 127.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 91.6 Range: 37.1 to 131.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.0
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 66.6 Range: 65.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 30.0 Range: 26.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.0
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 29.3 Range: 38.3 to 5.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.4
Scaled RI index= 1.4 Prob of RI= 2% is 0.1 times the sample mean(13%)
Discrim RI index= 1.9 Prob of RI= 2% is 0.2 times the sample mean(13%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP092007 FLOSSIE 08/16/07 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY