* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * DEAN AL042007 08/16/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 65 69 74 77 82 93 100 100 101 105 111 115 113 V (KT) LAND 65 69 74 77 82 93 100 100 101 105 111 115 113 V (KT) LGE mod 65 70 74 78 82 90 98 106 110 113 118 126 127 SHEAR (KTS) 6 8 11 13 8 1 7 15 3 11 1 10 5 SHEAR DIR 321 325 293 273 279 311 11 57 66 62 153 90 84 SST (C) 27.5 27.9 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.4 29.7 30.3 29.4 POT. INT. (KT) 134 139 144 147 148 150 151 152 154 161 167 174 161 ADJ. POT. INT. 139 145 151 154 154 155 154 155 157 164 169 174 159 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.1 -52.6 -53.0 -52.8 -51.7 -52.2 -51.2 -52.2 -51.5 -51.2 -50.3 -50.6 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 10 9 10 9 9 10 11 10 10 10 700-500 MB RH 53 60 61 60 65 62 63 65 60 63 61 67 62 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 15 16 16 18 20 21 18 16 19 22 26 24 850 MB ENV VOR 11 14 23 22 22 32 48 70 74 73 64 71 66 200 MB DIV 33 61 73 10 31 86 38 82 2 63 28 91 -8 LAND (KM) 884 864 697 544 445 462 279 247 174 69 211 324 21 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.5 13.7 14.1 14.4 14.9 15.4 15.9 16.5 17.2 18.1 18.9 19.7 LONG(DEG W) 51.3 53.3 55.3 57.3 59.2 63.0 66.5 69.9 73.3 76.8 80.3 83.8 87.2 STM SPEED (KT) 20 20 20 19 19 18 17 17 17 17 17 17 17 HEAT CONTENT 31 46 64 68 69 71 81 68 91 111 133 137 86 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 21 CX,CY: -20/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 582 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 18.3 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 95.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. 11. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR 0. 0. 0. 0. 3. 6. 6. 8. 9. 11. 12. 13. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 2. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 1. -1. 1. 3. 6. 4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 9. 9. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 4. 9. 12. 17. 28. 35. 35. 36. 40. 44. 48. 45. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 4. 9. 12. 17. 28. 35. 35. 36. 40. 46. 50. 48. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL042007 DEAN 08/16/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 8.9 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.3 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.7 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 1.2 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.8 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 90.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.3 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.5 Scaled RI index= 4.6 Prob of RI= 34% is 2.8 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 4.6 Prob of RI= 38% is 3.2 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL042007 DEAN 08/16/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY