* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES/OHC INPUT INCLUDED * * ERIN AL052007 08/16/07 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 35 36 38 41 43 49 55 58 61 59 58 58 56 V (KT) LAND 35 36 31 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 35 36 31 29 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 DIS DIS SHEAR (KTS) 5 3 4 7 9 13 20 14 31 25 36 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 265 216 285 264 281 258 297 324 334 2 356 N/A N/A SST (C) 29.6 29.4 29.3 29.5 29.7 29.7 29.3 28.4 27.0 25.5 24.3 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 162 158 157 160 163 163 155 140 122 107 98 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 144 139 137 140 141 138 128 116 101 90 83 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.1 -51.0 -50.8 -51.0 -50.9 -51.2 -51.1 -51.2 -51.5 -51.5 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 12 14 12 13 13 13 12 14 11 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 65 66 63 65 63 67 61 58 55 49 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 6 6 4 4 5 3 4 2 4 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 0 -8 5 18 15 14 11 -12 -12 -5 5 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 15 12 19 34 13 24 11 3 -11 -11 -21 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 112 32 -58 -161 -268 -434 -587 -635 -648 -717 -765 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.7 27.2 27.7 28.2 28.7 29.6 30.4 31.3 32.2 33.2 34.3 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 96.2 97.1 97.9 98.9 99.8 101.2 102.5 102.4 101.6 101.4 100.7 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 9 10 9 7 5 5 5 6 6 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 41 27 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=625) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 100-300 KM RAD: 33.2 (MEAN=20.0) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=69.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 12. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 7. 10. 14. 16. 18. 18. 19. 20. VERTICAL SHEAR 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 11. 12. 11. 9. 7. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- SUB-TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 7. 10. 16. 22. 24. 27. 26. 25. 25. 24. SATELLITE ADJUSTMENTS ---------------------------------------------------------- MEAN ADJUSTMENT 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. GOES IR STD DEV 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES IR PIXEL COUNT 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL ADJUSTMENT 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE (KT) 1. 3. 6. 8. 14. 20. 23. 26. 24. 23. 23. 21. ** 2007 ATLANTIC RAPID INTENSITY INDEX AL052007 ERIN 08/16/07 06 UTC ** ( 25 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR) 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 0.0 Range:-45.0 to 30.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.6/ 0.9 850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.6 Range: 35.1 to 3.2 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.9/ 0.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.6 Range:-20.0 to 149.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2 POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 105.2 Range: 8.1 to 130.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.6 850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 73.0 Range: 57.0 to 88.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.1 % area w/pixels <-30 C: 38.0 Range: 17.0 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 33.2 Range: 37.5 to 5.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1 Scaled RI index= 3.4 Prob of RI= 9% is 0.7 times the sample mean(12%) Discrim RI index= 3.8 Prob of RI= 18% is 1.5 times the sample mean(12%) ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) AL052007 ERIN 08/16/07 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ## ## ANNULAR INDEX RAN NORMALLY